Football · Spain La Liga · 30/08, 21:30

Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Celta Vigo · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Celta Vigo1.54

Athletic Bilbao1.34

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Celta Vigo Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Celta Vigo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLDWD

Athletic Bilbao 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLDLL

Head-to-head

Celta Vigo 2–1–3 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao1-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-0Athletic Bilbao
Celta Vigo1-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao3-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao4-3Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1540 · Athletic Bilbao 1493

	Celta Vigo	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celta Vigo (rating 1540 vs 1493).
H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celta Vigo	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.6	3.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.43 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +3’	2.35	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:57 +5’	2.40	3.26	3.06
21:49 +1’	2.43▲	3.30▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 2–1–3 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-1 HT 0-1	Celta Vigo
14/12/25 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
19/01/25 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
22/09/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	3-1 HT 2-1	Celta Vigo
15/05/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao
10/11/23 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	4-3 HT 2-2	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Athletic Bilbao
Valencia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sevilla	1-0 W	1-3 L
Atletico Madrid	1-0 W	2-3 L
Villarreal	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Celta Vigo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celta Vigo

WLLLWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
03/05	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
22/04	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
05/04	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	0	4	W

Athletic Bilbao

LLWLWLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
25/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-0	2-3	4	0	L
21/04	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	15	5	L
05/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celta Vigo win (40%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 40%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 32%.

How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Celta Vigo 1.54 · Athletic Bilbao 1.34), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.