Football · Spain La Liga · 10/10, 16:15

Prediction: CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: CD Alaves · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

CD Alaves1.07

Atletico Madrid1.5

1X2

26% 27% 46%

CD Alaves Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Alaves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLLD

Atletico Madrid 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWLWW

Head-to-head

CD Alaves 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Atletico Madrid1-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-1Atletico Madrid
CD Alaves0-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid2-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves2-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid2-1CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Alaves 1529 · Atletico Madrid 1527

	CD Alaves	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	26%	28%	46%
Market	27%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Alaves	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.74 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +6’	3.50	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +831’	3.74	3.57	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
30/08/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid
03/05/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
23/11/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Alaves
21/04/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid
29/10/23 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	17	6	15
3	Real Betis	6	5	0	1	8	6	15
4	Atletico Madrid	6	4	1	1	14	6	13
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
8	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
9	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
10	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
11	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
12	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
13	Real Sociedad	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
14	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
15	Villarreal	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
16	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
17	Getafe	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	2	10	4
20	Malaga	6	0	3	3	3	11	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Alaves	Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	0-0 D	0-3 L
Osasuna	5-2 W	4-0 W
Villarreal	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Alaves

WWLWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Atletico Madrid

LWWLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
13/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (46%). Probabilities: CD Alaves 26%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 46%.

How many goals are expected in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.56 goals (CD Alaves 1.07 · Atletico Madrid 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.