Football · Spain La Liga · 10/10, 16:15

Prediction: CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: CD Alaves · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

CD Alaves0.9

Atletico Madrid1.55

1X2

21% 26% 52%

CD Alaves Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Alaves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLLD

Atletico Madrid 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

CD Alaves 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Atletico Madrid1-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-1Atletico Madrid
CD Alaves0-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid2-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves2-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid2-1CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Alaves 1531 · Atletico Madrid 1559

	CD Alaves	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	21%	28%	51%
Market	22%	25%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Alaves	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.75

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.05

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 16 moves · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.62 ★
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.78
2	2.00 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.82

See the full journey (16)

Bet365 margin 5.3% Pinnacle margin 3.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +6’	3.50	3.50	2.00
23:15 +2’	3.80▲	3.50	1.90▼
22:55 +3’	4.50▲	3.70▲	1.73▼
01:24 +5’	4.00▼	3.60▼	1.83▲
11:50 +3’	4.20▲	3.70▲	1.80▼
20:56 +3’	4.00▼	3.60▼	1.83▲
17:17 +3’	4.75▲	3.80▲	1.70▼
23:00 +3’	4.10▼	3.60▼	1.80▲
03:15 +4’	4.33▲	3.60	1.83▲
22:03 +6’	4.75▲	4.00▲	1.67▼
02:06 +6’	4.50▼	3.90▼	1.73▲
11:40 +3’	4.10▼	3.80▼	1.80▲
17:21 +6’	4.20▲	3.80	1.80
06:45 +3’	4.10▼	3.75▼	1.83▲
07:45 +9’	4.20▲	3.80▲	1.80▼
14:01 +4’	4.33▲	3.75▼	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +831’	3.74	3.57	1.98
08:21 +51’	3.73▼	3.57	1.99▲
09:45 +29’	3.91▲	3.63▲	1.92▼
17:47 +34’	3.91	3.62▼	1.93▲
17:56 +42’	3.92▲	3.63▲	1.92▼
22:27 +32’	4.16▲	3.72▲	1.84▼
09:50 +47’	4.25▲	3.75▲	1.81▼
13:38 +56’	4.31▲	3.80▲	1.83▲
19:11 +108’	4.10▼	3.73▼	1.89▲
05:31 +62’	4.03▼	3.70▼	1.92▲
07:11 +127’	4.07▲	3.71▲	1.90▼
10:23 +75’	4.19▲	3.76▲	1.86▼
14:09 +86’	4.20▲	3.77▲	1.86
20:26 +93’	4.27▲	3.81▲	1.83▼
16:17 +150’	4.30▲	3.83▲	1.85▲
12:18 +9’	4.32▲	3.85▲	1.83▼
05:13 +43’	4.33▲	3.81▼	1.85▲
13:35 +90’	4.32▼	3.78▼	1.85▲
18:08 +36’	4.33▲	3.78	1.85
22:41 +18’	4.25▼	3.76▼	1.87▲
05:37 +14’	4.27▲	3.77▲	1.87
09:05 +58’	4.31▲	3.78▲	1.85▼
13:06 +35’	4.13▼	3.72▼	1.91▲
14:33 +175’	4.31▲	3.75▲	1.86▼
19:12 +177’	4.40▲	3.79▲	1.83▼
00:59 +73’	4.24▼	3.73▼	1.88▲
07:56 +63’	4.30▲	3.75▲	1.86▼
12:15 +33’	4.39▲	3.78▲	1.84▼
23:30 +171’	4.42▲	3.78	1.83▼
05:22 +104’	4.37▼	3.77▼	1.85▲
17:16 +11’	4.48▲	3.82▲	1.82▼
22:50 +30’	4.47▼	3.81▼	1.82
03:33 +42’	4.47	3.82▲	1.82
06:31 +17’	4.50▲	3.75▼	1.83▲
07:23 +31’	4.45▼	3.76▲	1.83▲
08:10 +71’	4.50▲	3.77▲	1.83▼
10:32 +21’	4.53▲	3.80▲	1.83▲
13:48 +17’	4.62▲	3.78▼	1.82▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
30/08/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid
03/05/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
23/11/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Alaves
21/04/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid
29/10/23 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
12	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Alaves	Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	0-0 D	0-3 L
Osasuna	5-2 W	4-0 W
Villarreal	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Alaves

WWLWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Atletico Madrid

WWLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
13/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (52%). Probabilities: CD Alaves 21%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 52%.

How many goals are expected in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.46 goals (CD Alaves 0.9 · Atletico Madrid 1.55), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.