Football · Spain La Liga · 19/10, 21:00

Prediction: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Team pages: Getafe · Rayo Vallecano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Getafe1.21

Rayo Vallecano0.97

1X2

40% 31% 28%

Getafe Draw Rayo Vallecano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Getafe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDDLW

Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWLWD

Head-to-head

Getafe 0–3–3 Rayo Vallecano (6 last)

Getafe0-2Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-1Getafe
Rayo Vallecano1-0Getafe
Getafe0-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano0-0Getafe
Getafe0-2Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Getafe 1469 · Rayo Vallecano 1515

	Getafe	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Our model	40%	32%	28%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rayo Vallecano (rating 1469 vs 1515).
H2H favours Rayo Vallecano: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.8	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +8’	2.30	3.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:03 +8’	2.24	2.88	3.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Getafe 0–3–3 Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-2 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano
02/01/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 1-0	Getafe
02/05/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-0 HT 1-0	Getafe
24/08/24 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
13/04/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	0-0 HT 0-0	Getafe
02/01/24 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-2 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna	0-1 L	1-1 D
Racing Santander	1-0 W	3-2 W
CD Alaves	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Getafe

WLWLWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
23/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	3	8	L
23/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
17/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
13/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	3	7	W

Rayo Vallecano

DWWLDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Getafe win (40%). Probabilities: Getafe 40%, draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 28%.

How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Getafe 1.21 · Rayo Vallecano 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.