Football · Spain La Liga · 18/10, 21:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Team pages: Real Madrid · Sevilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Real Madrid2.45

Sevilla0.71

1X2

75% 16% 9%

Real Madrid Draw Sevilla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWL

Sevilla 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 5–1–0 Sevilla (6 last)

Sevilla0-1Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-0Sevilla
Sevilla0-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-2Sevilla
Real Madrid1-0Sevilla
Sevilla1-1Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1624 · Sevilla 1518

	Real Madrid	Draw	Sevilla
Our model	75%	17%	8%
Market	76%	15%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1624 vs 1518).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	Sevilla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.25

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.02

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	7.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.08 ★
2	12.00 → 10.00▼	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:06 +5’	1.18	7.00	12.00
11:05 +6’	1.22▲	6.25▼	10.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:42 +29’	1.20	7.08	9.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–1–0 Sevilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
20/12/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-0 HT 1-0	Sevilla
18/05/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
22/12/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-2 HT 3-1	Sevilla
25/02/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla
21/10/23 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Sevilla
Atletico Madrid	1-2 L	1-3 L
Rayo Vallecano	4-1 W	2-1 W
Espanyol	2-1 W	1-1 D
Athletic Bilbao	4-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

WWWWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W

Sevilla

WLLWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
16/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (75%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 75%, draw 16%, Sevilla 9%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Real Madrid 2.45 · Sevilla 0.71), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.