Prediction: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Team pages: Real Madrid · Sevilla
- Sevilla0-1Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0Sevilla
- Sevilla0-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid4-2Sevilla
- Real Madrid1-0Sevilla
- Sevilla1-1Real Madrid
| Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1624 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.8 | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–1–0 Sevilla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Real Madrid |
| 20/12/25 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sevilla |
| 18/05/25 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Real Madrid |
| 22/12/24 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Sevilla |
| 25/02/24 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sevilla |
| 21/10/23 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Rayo Vallecano | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Espanyol | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Athletic Bilbao | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 04/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/08 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Oviedo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Sevilla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 16/09 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/09 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (75%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 75%, draw 16%, Sevilla 9%.
How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Real Madrid 2.44 · Sevilla 0.71), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.