Football · Spain La Liga · 17/10, 21:00
Prediction: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao
Team pages: Valencia · Athletic Bilbao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Valencia1.02
Athletic Bilbao1.35
1X2
Valencia
Draw
Athletic Bilbao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Valencia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Athletic Bilbao
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valencia
3–3
Athletic Bilbao
(6 last)
- Athletic Bilbao0-1Valencia
- Valencia1-2Athletic Bilbao
- Valencia2-0Athletic Bilbao
- Valencia0-1Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao1-0Valencia
- Valencia1-0Athletic Bilbao
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valencia 1432 · Athletic Bilbao 1501
| Valencia | Draw | Athletic Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (rating 1432 vs 1501).
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valencia | Athletic Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 3.5 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 3–0–3 Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 04/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Valencia | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 20/09/25 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 18/05/25 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 28/08/24 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Valencia |
| 20/01/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 18 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
| 19 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valencia | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| CD Alaves | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Sevilla | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Barcelona | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Celta Vigo | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (44%). Probabilities: Valencia 28%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 44%.
How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Valencia 1.02 · Athletic Bilbao 1.35), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.