Football · Spain La Liga · 17/10, 21:00

Prediction: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Valencia · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Valencia1.06

Athletic Bilbao1.37

1X2

28% 29% 43%

Valencia Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Valencia 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLLWL

Athletic Bilbao 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Valencia 3–3 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao0-1Valencia
Valencia1-2Athletic Bilbao
Valencia2-0Athletic Bilbao
Valencia0-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-0Valencia
Valencia1-0Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valencia 1449 · Athletic Bilbao 1502

	Valencia	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	28%	30%	43%
Market	28%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (rating 1449 vs 1502).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valencia	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.53 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.37
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +12’	3.30	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:42 +30’	3.53	3.37	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 3–0–3 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	Valencia
04/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey	Valencia	1-2 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
20/09/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	2-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
18/05/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
28/08/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 1-0	Valencia
20/01/24 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valencia	Athletic Bilbao
CD Alaves	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sevilla	0-1 L	1-3 L
Barcelona	0-5 L	0-2 L
Celta Vigo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valencia

DWWDLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
15/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
06/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
30/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
25/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
22/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
23/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
17/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-1	4-3	2	5	W
14/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	5	2	D

Athletic Bilbao

LLDLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (43%). Probabilities: Valencia 28%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 43%.

How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Valencia 1.06 · Athletic Bilbao 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.