Football · Spain La Liga · 17/10, 16:15
Prediction: Villarreal vs Elche
Team pages: Villarreal · Elche
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
Villarreal2.52
Elche1.17
1X2
Villarreal
Draw
Elche
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Villarreal
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Elche
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Villarreal
4–2
Elche
(6 last)
- Villarreal2-1Elche
- Elche1-3Villarreal
- Elche3-1Villarreal
- Villarreal4-0Elche
- Elche1-0Villarreal
- Villarreal4-1Elche
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Villarreal 1509 · Elche 1460
| Villarreal | Draw | Elche | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal (rating 1509 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Villarreal: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Villarreal | Elche | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 7.1 | 1.5 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Villarreal 4–0–2 Elche
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Elche |
| 03/01/26 Spain La Liga | Elche | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Villarreal |
| 04/02/23 Spain La Liga | Elche | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Villarreal |
| 04/09/22 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Elche |
| 16/01/22 Spain La Liga | Elche | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Villarreal |
| 22/09/21 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Elche |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | CD Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo A Coruna | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Racing Santander | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Villarreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Elche
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 07/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Villarreal vs Elche?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Villarreal win (66%). Probabilities: Villarreal 66%, draw 20%, Elche 15%.
How many goals are expected in Villarreal vs Elche?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Villarreal 2.52 · Elche 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Elche?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.