Football · Spain La Liga · 18/10, 16:15

Prediction: Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Celta Vigo · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Celta Vigo1.37

CD Alaves0.88

1X2

48% 29% 24%

Celta Vigo Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Celta Vigo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDDDW

CD Alaves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWLLD

Head-to-head

Celta Vigo 2–2–2 CD Alaves (6 last)

Celta Vigo3-4CD Alaves
CD Alaves0-1Celta Vigo
CD Alaves1-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves3-0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-1CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1495 · CD Alaves 1528

	Celta Vigo	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	47%	30%	23%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celta Vigo	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.1	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.99 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.36
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.82

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +8’	1.91	3.30	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:42 +29’	1.99	3.36	3.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 2–2–2 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	3-4 HT 3-1	CD Alaves
22/11/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-1 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
27/01/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
16/08/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Alaves
27/04/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	3-0 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
28/09/23 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celta Vigo	CD Alaves
Racing Santander	5-0 W	1-2 L
Getafe	1-1 D	3-0 W
Athletic Bilbao	0-2 L	0-0 D
Osasuna	1-2 L	5-2 W
Valencia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celta Vigo

LDWDLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L

CD Alaves

WWLWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celta Vigo win (48%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 48%, draw 29%, CD Alaves 24%.

How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Celta Vigo 1.37 · CD Alaves 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.