Football · Spain La Liga · 18/10, 16:15

Prediction: Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Celta Vigo · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Celta Vigo1.35

CD Alaves0.98

1X2

45% 29% 27%

Celta Vigo Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Celta Vigo 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDDWD

CD Alaves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLLDL

Head-to-head

Celta Vigo 2–2–2 CD Alaves (6 last)

Celta Vigo3-4CD Alaves
CD Alaves0-1Celta Vigo
CD Alaves1-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves3-0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-1CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1475 · CD Alaves 1508

	Celta Vigo	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celta Vigo	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.9	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 9 moves · last 23:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.16
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.74 ★

See the full journey (9)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +8’	1.91	3.30	3.80
00:20 +7’	1.95▲	3.40▲	3.75▼
14:19 +5’	1.95	3.50▲	3.75
11:30 +2’	1.95	3.40▼	3.80▲
13:30 +2’	2.05▲	3.40	3.70▼
18:26 +2’	2.10▲	3.50▲	3.80▲
20:01 +5’	2.05▼	3.40▼	3.70▼
21:26 +2’	2.10▲	3.40	3.60▼
23:24 +13’	2.10	3.40	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:42 +29’	1.99	3.36	3.82
11:43 +30’	2.00▲	3.40▲	3.87▲
23:42 +45’	2.01▲	3.40	3.85▼
16:17 +7’	2.02▲	3.37▼	3.86▲
21:14 +29’	2.04▲	3.41▲	3.91▲
16:15 +19’	2.05▲	3.43▲	3.93▲
09:15 +4’	2.06▲	3.42▼	3.91▼
11:23 +9’	2.08▲	3.34▼	3.92▲
13:28 +4’	2.16▲	3.29▼	3.76▼
14:05 +27’	2.16	3.28▼	3.74▼
14:59 +44’	2.17▲	3.28	3.72▼
10:06 +18’	2.18▲	3.27▼	3.72
11:53 +37’	2.17▼	3.28▲	3.72
15:51 +40’	2.17	3.28	3.74▲
00:15 +4’	2.16▼	3.29▲	3.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 2–2–2 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	3-4 HT 3-1	CD Alaves
22/11/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-1 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
27/01/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
16/08/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Alaves
27/04/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	3-0 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
28/09/23 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celta Vigo	CD Alaves
Racing Santander	5-0 W	1-2 L
Getafe	1-1 D	3-0 W
Athletic Bilbao	0-2 L	0-0 D
Osasuna	1-2 L	5-2 W
Valencia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celta Vigo

DWDLLDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D

CD Alaves

WLWDWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celta Vigo win (45%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 45%, draw 29%, CD Alaves 27%.

How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Celta Vigo 1.35 · CD Alaves 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.