Football · Spain La Liga · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Elche vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Elche · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Elche1.32
Celta Vigo1.48
1X2
32% 29% 39%
Elche Draw Celta Vigo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Elche 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
LWDDLLLDLW
Celta Vigo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)
LDWDLLDDDW
Head-to-head
Elche 2–4 Celta Vigo (6 last)
  • Celta Vigo3-1Elche
  • Elche2-1Celta Vigo
  • Celta Vigo1-0Elche
  • Elche0-1Celta Vigo
  • Celta Vigo1-0Elche
  • Elche1-0Celta Vigo
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elche 1470 · Celta Vigo 1496
ElcheDrawCelta Vigo
Our model33%28%40%
Market32%29%39%
Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Celta Vigo: 4-0-2.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ElcheCelta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)1.4 / 21.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 1.10.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/20/50%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.5 / 3.71.2 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.4 / 0.43.5 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 2–0–4 Celta Vigo

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DateHomeScoreAway
03/05/26
Spain La Liga
Celta Vigo3-1
HT 2-0
Elche
28/09/25
Spain La Liga
Elche2-1
HT 1-1
Celta Vigo
26/04/23
Spain La Liga
Celta Vigo1-0
HT 0-0
Elche
06/01/23
Spain La Liga
Elche0-1
HT 0-1
Celta Vigo
15/05/22
Spain La Liga
Celta Vigo1-0
HT 1-0
Elche
03/10/21
Spain La Liga
Elche1-0
HT 0-0
Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Barcelona 7700 31721
2 Atletico Madrid 7511 16716
3 Real Betis 7511 9716
4 Real Madrid 7502 18815
5 Sevilla 7412 10913
6 CD Alaves 7322 11611
7 Deportivo A Coruna 7241 10810
8 Real Sociedad 7313 91310
9 Villarreal 7223 13128
10 Athletic Bilbao 6222 768
11 Espanyol 8224 11118
12 Getafe 7223 478
13 Rayo Vallecano 7223 11168
14 Osasuna 7223 6138
15 Celta Vigo 7142 867
16 Racing Santander 7214 11217
17 Levante 6123 8125
18 Elche 7124 11175
19 Malaga 8044 4134
19 Valencia 7115 4134

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentElcheCelta Vigo
Athletic Bilbao 1-1 D 0-2 L
Real Sociedad 2-3 L 0-0 D
Racing Santander 2-3 L 5-0 W
Getafe 1-0 W 1-1 D
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 2 L 1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elche

LWDDLLLDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/09 Espanyol
Spain La Liga
2-0 3-1 35 W
15/09 Real Madrid
Spain La Liga
0-2 2-3 26 L
12/09 Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga
0-0 1-1 16 D
07/09 Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga
0-2 2-3 66 L
28/08 Racing Santander
Spain La Liga
0-3 2-3 103 L
23/08 Barcelona
Spain La Liga
0-2 0-5 31 L
17/08 Deportivo A Coruna
Spain La Liga
0-1 1-1 64 D
23/05 Girona
Spain La Liga
1-0 1-1 18 D
17/05 Getafe
Spain La Liga
1-0 1-0 43 W
12/05 Real Betis
Spain La Liga
1-1 1-2 16 L

Celta Vigo

LDWDLLDDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Racing Santander
Spain La Liga
2-0 5-0 37 W
13/09 Malaga
Spain La Liga
1-0 1-1 12 D
07/09 Getafe
Spain La Liga
0-1 1-1 56 D
03/09 Real Sociedad
Spain La Liga
0-0 0-0 35 D
30/08 Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga
0-2 0-2 43 L
27/08 Osasuna
Spain La Liga
1-0 1-2 52 L
22/08 Valencia
Spain La Liga
0-0 0-0 25 D
23/05 Sevilla
Spain La Liga
0-0 1-0 41 W
17/05 Athletic Bilbao
Spain La Liga
1-0 1-1 04 D
12/05 Levante
Spain La Liga
1-1 2-3 42 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Celta Vigo win (39%). Probabilities: Elche 32%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 39%.

How many goals are expected in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Elche 1.32 · Celta Vigo 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.