Football · Spain La Liga · 11/10, 14:00

Prediction: Elche vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Elche · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Elche1.28

Celta Vigo1.43

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Elche Draw Celta Vigo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Elche 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLLDLW

Celta Vigo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDDDW

Head-to-head

Elche 2–4 Celta Vigo (6 last)

Celta Vigo3-1Elche
Elche2-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-0Elche
Elche0-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-0Elche
Elche1-0Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elche 1487 · Celta Vigo 1501

	Elche	Draw	Celta Vigo
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Celta Vigo: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elche	Celta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	1.2 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.92
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.21
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.53 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +3’	2.90	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +901’	2.92	3.21	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 2–0–4 Celta Vigo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	3-1 HT 2-0	Elche
28/09/25 Spain La Liga	Elche	2-1 HT 1-1	Celta Vigo
26/04/23 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-0 HT 0-0	Elche
06/01/23 Spain La Liga	Elche	0-1 HT 0-1	Celta Vigo
15/05/22 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-0 HT 1-0	Elche
03/10/21 Spain La Liga	Elche	1-0 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	17	6	15
3	Real Betis	6	5	0	1	8	6	15
4	Atletico Madrid	6	4	1	1	14	6	13
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
8	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
9	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
10	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
11	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
12	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
13	Real Sociedad	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
14	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
15	Villarreal	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
16	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
17	Getafe	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	2	10	4
20	Malaga	6	0	3	3	3	11	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elche	Celta Vigo
Athletic Bilbao	1-1 D	0-2 L
Real Sociedad	2-3 L	0-0 D
Racing Santander	2-3 L	5-0 W
Getafe	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elche

LWDDLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
15/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
12/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
07/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-3	2-3	10	3	L
23/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
17/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	1	6	L

Celta Vigo

LDWDLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Celta Vigo win (39%). Probabilities: Elche 32%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 39%.

How many goals are expected in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Elche 1.28 · Celta Vigo 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.