Football · Spain La Liga · 12/10, 21:00

Prediction: Levante vs Sevilla

Team pages: Levante · Sevilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Levante1.38

Sevilla1.42

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Levante Draw Sevilla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Levante 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Sevilla 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Levante 2–4 Sevilla (6 last)

Levante2-0Sevilla
Sevilla0-3Levante
Levante2-3Sevilla
Sevilla5-3Levante
Levante0-1Sevilla
Sevilla1-0Levante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levante 1530 · Sevilla 1482

	Levante	Draw	Sevilla
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levante (rating 1530 vs 1482).
H2H favours Sevilla: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levante	Sevilla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 10:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.77
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.31 ★
2	2.70 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.70

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +10’	2.55	3.25	2.70
22:25 +3’	2.63▲	3.25	2.63▼
04:43 +4’	2.70▲	3.25	2.70▲
18:57 +5’	2.75▲	3.25	2.63▼
00:15 +4’	2.75	3.25	2.70▲
02:19 +18’	2.75	3.25	2.63▼
10:20 +3’	2.75	3.20▼	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +834’	2.61	3.25	2.79
21:55 +3’	2.68▲	3.25	2.72▼
15:16 +4’	2.66▼	3.30▲	2.70▼
14:09 +39’	2.66	3.29▼	2.71▲
13:38 +57’	2.69▲	3.33▲	2.73▲
07:28 +24’	2.70▲	3.33	2.72▼
15:16 +72’	2.71▲	3.33	2.71▼
22:01 +116’	2.73▲	3.35▲	2.71
15:23 +244’	2.64▼	3.35	2.80▲
00:58 +178’	2.70▲	3.35	2.74▼
14:23 +11’	2.83▲	3.35	2.62▼
22:55 +60’	2.82▼	3.35	2.63▲
08:27 +33’	2.83▲	3.35	2.62▼
11:06 +179’	2.84▲	3.35	2.61▼
17:19 +228’	2.78▼	3.34▼	2.68▲
18:18 +29’	2.77▼	3.34	2.69▲
09:51 +32’	2.77	3.31▼	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Levante 2–0–4 Sevilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Spain La Liga	Levante	2-0 HT 1-0	Sevilla
04/01/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-3 HT 0-1	Levante
21/04/22 Spain La Liga	Levante	2-3 HT 1-2	Sevilla
24/10/21 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	5-3 HT 3-1	Levante
21/04/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-1 HT 0-0	Sevilla
01/10/20 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-0 HT 0-0	Levante

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
4	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
10	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
11	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levante	Sevilla
Villarreal	1-3 L	3-2 W
Barcelona	2-4 L	1-3 L
Espanyol	0-3 L	1-1 D
Celta Vigo	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sevilla (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levante

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
13/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	2-4	3	2	L
06/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
17/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
08/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	15	3	W

Sevilla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
16/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levante vs Sevilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sevilla win (36%). Probabilities: Levante 35%, draw 29%, Sevilla 36%.

How many goals are expected in Levante vs Sevilla?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Levante 1.38 · Sevilla 1.42), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Sevilla?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.