Football · Spain La Liga · 21/10, 20:00

Prediction: Levante vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Levante · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Levante1.23

Athletic Bilbao1.59

1X2

28% 27% 44%

Levante Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Levante 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Athletic Bilbao 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Levante 0–3–3 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao4-2Levante
Levante0-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao3-1Levante
Levante0-0Athletic Bilbao
Levante1-1Athletic Bilbao
Levante1-1Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levante 1477 · Athletic Bilbao 1498

	Levante	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	28%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levante	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.77 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +3’	3.25	3.40	2.15
21:06 +4’	3.30▲	3.40	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:20 +7’	3.25	3.34	2.20
22:48 +12’	3.56▲	3.15▼	2.16▼
23:27 +3’	3.64▲	3.10▼	2.21▲
23:32 +62’	3.67▲	3.04▼	2.23▲
08:36 +43’	3.70▲	2.97▼	2.26▲
20:54 +17’	3.90▲	3.05▲	2.14▼
03:33 +54’	3.80▼	3.02▼	2.19▲
09:07 +16’	3.77▼	3.09▲	2.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Levante 0–3–3 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	4-2 HT 2-0	Levante
29/11/25 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-2 HT 0-2	Athletic Bilbao
07/03/22 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	3-1 HT 0-0	Levante
19/11/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
04/03/21 Spain Copa del Rey	Levante	1-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
26/02/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levante	Athletic Bilbao
Sevilla	3-3 D	1-3 L
Barcelona	2-4 L	0-2 L
Espanyol	0-3 L	0-2 L
Celta Vigo	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levante

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	3-3	5	8	D
20/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
13/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	2-4	3	2	L
06/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
17/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-1	3-2	4	2	W

Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (44%). Probabilities: Levante 28%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 44%.

How many goals are expected in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Levante 1.23 · Athletic Bilbao 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.