Prediction: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Team pages: Real Madrid · Villarreal
- Villarreal0-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid3-1Villarreal
- Villarreal1-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0Villarreal
- Villarreal4-4Real Madrid
- Real Madrid4-1Villarreal
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1612 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1 | 2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.8 | 4.1 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–1–0 Villarreal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Real Madrid |
| 04/10/25 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Villarreal |
| 15/03/25 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Real Madrid |
| 05/10/24 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Villarreal |
| 19/05/24 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 4-4 HT 1-4 | Real Madrid |
| 17/12/23 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Villarreal |
Standings · Spain La Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | CD Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 12 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 5 |
| 19 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Rayo Vallecano | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Real Betis | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Malaga | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Sevilla | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Madrid
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 04/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/08 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Oviedo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Villarreal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (70%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 70%, draw 17%, Villarreal 13%.
How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model expects 3.69 goals (Real Madrid 2.61 · Villarreal 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.