Football · Spain La Liga · 10/10, 21:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Team pages: Real Madrid · Villarreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Real Madrid2.8

Villarreal1.02

1X2

74% 15% 11%

Real Madrid Draw Villarreal

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWW

Villarreal 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 5–1–0 Villarreal (6 last)

Villarreal0-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid3-1Villarreal
Villarreal1-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-0Villarreal
Villarreal4-4Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-1Villarreal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1647 · Villarreal 1488

	Real Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
Our model	74%	16%	10%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1647 vs 1488).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	Villarreal
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.5	3.9 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.02

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.87 ★
2	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 8.98

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +10’	1.25	6.25	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:20 +403’	1.24	6.83	8.94
10:09 +84’	1.24▼	6.87▲	8.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–1–0 Villarreal

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
04/10/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	3-1 HT 0-0	Villarreal
15/03/25 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	1-2 HT 1-2	Real Madrid
05/10/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-0 HT 1-0	Villarreal
19/05/24 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	4-4 HT 1-4	Real Madrid
17/12/23 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-1 HT 2-0	Villarreal

Standings · Spain La Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	17	6	15
3	Real Betis	6	5	0	1	8	6	15
4	Atletico Madrid	6	4	1	1	14	6	13
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
8	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
9	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
10	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
11	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
12	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
13	Real Sociedad	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
14	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
15	Villarreal	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
16	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
17	Getafe	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	2	10	4
20	Malaga	6	0	3	3	3	11	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano	4-1 W	0-2 L
Real Betis	0-1 L	1-2 L
Malaga	4-0 W	3-1 W
Sevilla	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

LWWWWWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L

Villarreal

DLLWDDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-1	3-1	8	6	W
14/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
05/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
28/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	2-2	10	6	D
24/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	4-1	5-1	5	1	W
17/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
13/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
10/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (74%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 74%, draw 15%, Villarreal 11%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Real Madrid 2.8 · Villarreal 1.02), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.