Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad0-1Athletic Bilbao
- Real Sociedad1-0Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao0-1Real Sociedad
- Athletic Bilbao1-1Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad3-2Athletic Bilbao
- Real Sociedad0-0Athletic Bilbao
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (rating 1452 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Real Sociedad: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Athletic Bilbao | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.8 | 3.7 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 1–2–3 Real Sociedad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/26 Europe Friendlies | Real Sociedad | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 04/03/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Real Sociedad | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 11/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Real Sociedad |
| 01/02/26 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 01/11/25 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 04/05/25 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Athletic Bilbao | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Elche | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Atletico Madrid | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Celta Vigo | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Real Madrid | 2-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Levante Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Real Sociedad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 07/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/08 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao win (48%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 48%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 26%.
How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Athletic Bilbao 1.52 · Real Sociedad 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.