Football · Spain La Liga · 01/11, 18:30
Prediction: Elche vs Valencia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Elche1.29
Valencia1.21
1X2
Elche
Draw
Valencia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Elche
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Valencia
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Elche
1–2–3
Valencia
(6 last)
- Elche1-0Valencia
- Valencia1-1Elche
- Elche0-2Valencia
- Valencia2-2Elche
- Elche0-1Valencia
- Valencia2-1Elche
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elche 1487 · Valencia 1425
| Elche | Draw | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elche (rating 1487 vs 1425).
- H2H favours Valencia: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Elche | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.2 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 1–2–3 Valencia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Spain La Liga | Elche | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 10/01/26 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Elche |
| 23/04/23 Spain La Liga | Elche | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Valencia |
| 15/10/22 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Elche |
| 19/03/22 Spain La Liga | Elche | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 11/12/21 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Elche |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 15 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Elche | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Athletic Bilbao | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Real Sociedad | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Racing Santander | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Barcelona | 0-5 L | 0-5 L |
| Deportivo A Coruna | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elche
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 18/09 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 07/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
Valencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elche vs Valencia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Elche win (38%). Probabilities: Elche 38%, draw 29%, Valencia 34%.
How many goals are expected in Elche vs Valencia?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Elche 1.29 · Valencia 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Valencia?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.