Football · Spain La Liga · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Getafe vs Sevilla

Team pages: Getafe · Sevilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Getafe1.04

Sevilla1.11

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Getafe Draw Sevilla

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Getafe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDLWLD

Sevilla 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Getafe 1–1–4 Sevilla (6 last)

Getafe0-1Sevilla
Sevilla1-2Getafe
Getafe0-0Sevilla
Sevilla1-0Getafe
Getafe0-1Sevilla
Getafe1-3Sevilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Getafe 1483 · Sevilla 1504

	Getafe	Draw	Sevilla
Our model	32%	32%	36%
Market	33%	31%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sevilla: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Getafe	Sevilla
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.97 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +10’	2.63	3.00	2.75
23:34 +1’	2.75▲	3.00	2.63▼
21:09 +9’	2.80▲	3.00	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +3’	2.79	2.95	2.76
22:19 +1’	2.82▲	2.97▲	2.79▲
17:54 +39’	2.87▲	2.97	2.74▼
23:30 +5’	2.93▲	3.00▲	2.67▼
17:40 +66’	2.93	2.99▼	2.68▲
19:26 +24’	2.97▲	3.00▲	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Getafe 1–1–4 Sevilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-1 HT 0-0	Sevilla
25/08/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-2 HT 1-1	Getafe
01/02/25 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla
14/09/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-0 HT 1-0	Getafe
30/03/24 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-1 HT 0-1	Sevilla
16/01/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Getafe	1-3 HT 1-1	Sevilla

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	39	9	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	23	9	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	16	14	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	17	17	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	14	16	14
7	CD Alaves	9	3	2	4	13	10	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	10	7	11
9	Deportivo A Coruna	9	2	5	2	13	12	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	10	18	11
11	Levante	9	2	4	3	15	17	10
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	13	13	9
13	Athletic Bilbao	8	2	3	3	8	9	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	12	17	9
15	Getafe	9	2	3	4	5	11	9
16	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	11	12	8
17	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	13	25	8
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	11	17	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	6	15	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Getafe	Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano	1-1 D	2-1 W
Barcelona	0-3 L	1-3 L
Deportivo A Coruna	1-1 D	1-0 W
Celta Vigo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sevilla (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Getafe

WLWLDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
10/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
20/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
23/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
15/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	3	8	L
23/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

Sevilla

LWWLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
12/10	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	3-3	2	8	D
19/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
16/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Sevilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sevilla win (36%). Probabilities: Getafe 33%, draw 31%, Sevilla 36%.

How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Sevilla?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Getafe 1.04 · Sevilla 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Sevilla?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.