Football · Spain La Liga · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Levante vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: Levante · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Levante0.99

Atletico Madrid1.93

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Levante Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Levante 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLDDW

Atletico Madrid 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Levante 2–2–2 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Levante0-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid3-1Levante
Levante0-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid0-1Levante
Levante2-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid0-2Levante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levante 1481 · Atletico Madrid 1592

	Levante	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	19%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1481 vs 1592).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levante	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.63 ★
2	1.53 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:54 +23’	5.25	4.10	1.53
00:09 +10’	6.25▲	4.33▲	1.44▼
02:16 +9’	5.50▼	4.20▼	1.50▲
18:30 +3’	5.25▼	4.20	1.50
23:08 +4’	5.25	4.20	1.53▲
00:12 +7’	5.00▼	4.10▼	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:17 +8’	4.94	4.35	1.57
22:13 +7’	5.59▲	4.33▼	1.52▼
22:21 +56’	5.69▲	4.40▲	1.53▲
23:17 +1’	5.78▲	4.43▲	1.52▼
23:22 +58’	6.17▲	4.54▲	1.48▼
02:23 +3’	6.23▲	4.56▲	1.48▼
08:42 +35’	6.30▲	4.58▲	1.47▼
11:51 +33’	6.53▲	4.69▲	1.45▼
13:04 +22’	6.39▼	4.64▼	1.46▲
17:35	6.45▲	4.65▲	1.46▼
18:06 +26’	5.17▼	4.72▲	1.53▲
23:03 +8’	4.60▼	4.66▼	1.60▲
23:30 +5’	4.56▼	4.63▼	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Levante 2–2–2 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
08/11/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	3-1 HT 1-1	Levante
18/01/23 Spain Copa del Rey	Levante	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
16/02/22 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	0-1 HT 0-0	Levante
28/10/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid
20/02/21 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	0-2 HT 0-1	Levante

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	39	9	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	23	9	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	16	14	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	17	17	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	14	16	14
7	CD Alaves	9	3	2	4	13	10	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	10	7	11
9	Deportivo A Coruna	9	2	5	2	13	12	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	10	18	11
11	Levante	9	2	4	3	15	17	10
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	13	13	9
13	Athletic Bilbao	8	2	3	3	8	9	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	12	17	9
15	Getafe	9	2	3	4	5	11	9
16	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	11	12	8
17	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	13	25	8
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	11	17	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	6	15	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levante	Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	3-1 W	0-3 L
Sevilla	3-3 D	3-1 W
Villarreal	1-3 L	2-2 D
Malaga	0-0 D	2-0 W
Osasuna	0-0 D	4-0 W
Espanyol	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levante

LLDWDLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
16/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	3-3	5	8	D
20/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
13/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	2-4	3	2	L
06/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	8	3	L

Atletico Madrid

LWDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	12	7	W
10/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
20/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
13/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (59%). Probabilities: Levante 18%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 59%.

How many goals are expected in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Levante 0.99 · Atletico Madrid 1.93), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.