Football · Spain La Liga · 31/10, 16:15

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Rayo Vallecano1.32

Celta Vigo1.09

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Rayo Vallecano Draw Celta Vigo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLWDD

Celta Vigo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Rayo Vallecano 2–3–1 Celta Vigo (6 last)

Celta Vigo3-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-2Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano2-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo0-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano0-0Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1507 · Celta Vigo 1514

	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Celta Vigo
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rayo Vallecano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.32
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +3’	2.25	3.20	3.10
02:18 +7’	2.15▼	3.20	3.25▲
00:16 +3’	2.20▲	3.20	3.20▼
10:12 +11’	2.25▲	3.20	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:23 +1’	2.14	3.32	3.42
22:17 +3’	2.16▲	3.35▲	3.46▲
23:58 +27’	2.19▲	3.33▼	3.40▼
23:32 +3’	2.29▲	3.44▲	3.09▼
23:57 +23’	2.32▲	3.46▲	3.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 2–3–1 Celta Vigo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	3-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
21/09/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
18/05/25 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 1-2	Rayo Vallecano
10/01/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	2-1 HT 1-1	Celta Vigo
31/03/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	0-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
11/12/23 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	0-0 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	39	9	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	19	8	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	23	9	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	16	14	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	17	17	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	14	16	14
7	CD Alaves	9	3	2	4	13	10	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	10	7	11
9	Deportivo A Coruna	9	2	5	2	13	12	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	10	18	11
11	Levante	9	2	4	3	15	17	10
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	13	13	9
13	Athletic Bilbao	8	2	3	3	8	9	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	12	17	9
15	Getafe	9	2	3	4	5	11	9
16	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	11	12	8
17	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	13	25	8
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	11	17	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	6	15	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	6	18	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo
Getafe	1-1 D	1-1 D
Osasuna	1-1 D	1-2 L
Racing Santander	3-2 W	5-0 W
CD Alaves	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sevilla	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Celta Vigo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayo Vallecano

WWLDLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	8	10	D
19/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

Celta Vigo

WDLLDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
11/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Vallecano win (41%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 41%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.32 · Celta Vigo 1.09), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.