Football · Spain La Liga · 07/11, 18:30

Prediction: Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Osasuna · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Osasuna1.05

Athletic Bilbao1.35

1X2

28% 29% 43%

Osasuna Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Osasuna 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLDLWL

Athletic Bilbao 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDDDLW

Head-to-head

Osasuna 2–2–2 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao1-0Osasuna
Osasuna1-1Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna1-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-0Osasuna
Athletic Bilbao2-3Osasuna
Osasuna1-2Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Osasuna 1457 · Athletic Bilbao 1495

	Osasuna	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Osasuna	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.29
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.35
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +7’	3.25	3.30	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:39 +38’	3.32	3.32	2.18
22:32 +45’	3.35▲	3.36▲	2.20▲
16:03 +35’	3.29▼	3.35▼	2.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Osasuna 2–2–2 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 1-0	Osasuna
03/01/26 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao
04/09/25 Elite Club Friendlies	Osasuna	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
30/03/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-0 HT 0-0	Osasuna
16/01/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Athletic Bilbao	2-3 HT 1-2	Osasuna
21/12/24 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-2 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Osasuna	Athletic Bilbao
Sevilla	0-2 L	1-3 L
Atletico Madrid	0-4 L	3-0 W
CD Alaves	2-5 L	0-0 D
Getafe	1-0 W	4-0 W
Celta Vigo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Levante	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Osasuna

DWWLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
18/10	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
11/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	4	7	L
19/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
12/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
06/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	1	3	L
31/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
27/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/08	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Athletic Bilbao

LLLWWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
21/10	Levante Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
17/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (43%). Probabilities: Osasuna 28%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 43%.

How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Osasuna 1.05 · Athletic Bilbao 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.