Football · Spain La Liga · 06/11, 21:00

Prediction: Sevilla vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Sevilla · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Sevilla1.42

CD Alaves1.01

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Sevilla Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sevilla 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWLDLW

CD Alaves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Sevilla 1–2–3 CD Alaves (6 last)

Sevilla1-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-0Sevilla
CD Alaves1-2Sevilla
Sevilla1-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves2-1Sevilla
Sevilla2-3CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sevilla 1506 · CD Alaves 1473

	Sevilla	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Alaves: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sevilla	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.07
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.10 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.77 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +6’	1.90	3.40	4.10
08:09 +6’	2.05▲	3.30▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:29 +49’	2.10	3.22	3.65
22:32 +45’	2.11▲	3.26▲	3.69▲
06:19 +55’	2.13▲	3.26	3.65▼
16:35 +3’	2.07▼	3.30▲	3.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 1–2–3 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Alaves
17/12/25 Spain Copa del Rey	CD Alaves	1-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla
20/09/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-2 HT 1-1	Sevilla
20/04/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-1 HT 1-1	CD Alaves
20/09/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	2-1 HT 1-0	Sevilla
12/01/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	2-3 HT 0-2	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sevilla	CD Alaves
Osasuna	2-0 W	5-2 W
Valencia	1-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico Madrid	1-3 L	1-2 L
Athletic Bilbao	3-1 W	0-0 D
Rayo Vallecano	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sevilla (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sevilla

WWLDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
12/10	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	3-3	2	8	D
19/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
16/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-3	4	4	L
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W

CD Alaves

WDWWLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/10	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
10/10	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
19/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
15/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sevilla win (45%). Probabilities: Sevilla 45%, draw 29%, CD Alaves 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Sevilla 1.42 · CD Alaves 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.