Football · Spain La Liga · 21/11, 16:15
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia
Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Valencia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Rayo Vallecano1.5
Valencia1.09
1X2
Rayo Vallecano
Draw
Valencia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Rayo Vallecano
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Valencia
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rayo Vallecano
1–4–1
Valencia
(6 last)
- Valencia1-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Valencia
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Valencia
- Valencia0-1Rayo Vallecano
- Valencia0-0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0-1Valencia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1488 · Valencia 1445
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rayo Vallecano (rating 1488 vs 1445).
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rayo Vallecano | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 1.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 1–4–1 Valencia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 01/12/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Valencia |
| 19/04/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Valencia |
| 07/12/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 12/05/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 19/12/23 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 11 | CD Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Racing Santander | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Barcelona | 2-5 L | 0-5 L |
| CD Alaves | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sevilla | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rayo Vallecano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 10 | D |
| 19/09 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/08 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
Valencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 17/10 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Vallecano win (45%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 28%, Valencia 27%.
How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.5 · Valencia 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.