Football · Spain Segunda · 03/10, 16:15

Prediction: Almeria vs Burgos

Team pages: Almeria · Burgos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Almeria1.22

Burgos0.91

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Almeria Draw Burgos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Almeria 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLWWW

Burgos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLDDWW

Head-to-head

Almeria 3–1–2 Burgos (6 last)

Burgos0-0Almeria
Almeria1-2Burgos
Burgos3-1Almeria
Almeria2-0Burgos
Burgos0-2Almeria
Almeria2-0Burgos

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Almeria: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almeria	Burgos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.83

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.64 → 1.63▼	Pinn 1.63
X	3.81 → 3.93▲	Pinn 3.93
2	5.16 → 5.35▲	Pinn 5.35

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +1’	1.64	3.81	5.16
19:14 +29’	1.61▼	3.88▲	5.25▲
19:46 +42’	1.63▲	3.93▲	5.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almeria 3–1–2 Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-0 HT 0-0	Almeria
14/12/25 Spain Segunda	Almeria	1-2 HT 1-1	Burgos
21/03/25 Spain Segunda	Burgos	3-1 HT 1-1	Almeria
05/10/24 Spain Segunda	Almeria	2-0 HT 1-0	Burgos
30/04/22 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-2 HT 0-2	Almeria
07/11/21 Spain Segunda	Almeria	2-0 HT 1-0	Burgos

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Eibar	6	5	0	1	12	4	15
3	Girona	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
4	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	8	2	13
5	Almeria	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
6	Sabadell	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
7	Burgos	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
8	Leganes	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
9	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
10	Sporting Gijon	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
11	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
12	Oviedo	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
13	Granada	7	2	2	3	10	11	8
14	Real Sociedad B	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
15	Celta Fortuna	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
16	FC Andorra	7	2	0	5	12	15	6
17	Cordoba	6	2	0	4	9	13	6
18	Eldense	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
19	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	3	8	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	4	3	7	10	4
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	1	1	5	6	17	4
22	Albacete	7	0	1	6	4	12	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almeria

DWDLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	0	10	W
06/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	3-1	3-2	3	4	W
29/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
23/08	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
17/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
20/06	Malaga Spain Segunda	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
14/06	Malaga Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
09/06	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
06/06	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	0	6	D

Burgos

DWWWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
06/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
16/08	Cordoba Spain Segunda	2-2	3-2	1	4	W
31/05	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
16/05	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almeria vs Burgos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almeria win (42%). Probabilities: Almeria 42%, draw 32%, Burgos 26%.

How many goals are expected in Almeria vs Burgos?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Almeria 1.22 · Burgos 0.91), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almeria vs Burgos?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.