Football · Spain Segunda · 11/10, 21:00

Prediction: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon

Team pages: Cadiz · Sporting Gijon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Cadiz1.41

Sporting Gijon1.32

1X2

37% 29% 33%

Cadiz Draw Sporting Gijon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cadiz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLLLDW

Sporting Gijon 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Cadiz 2–1–3 Sporting Gijon (6 last)

Sporting Gijon3-0Cadiz
Cadiz3-2Sporting Gijon
Cadiz1-0Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon2-0Cadiz
Sporting Gijon0-0Cadiz
Sporting Gijon1-0Cadiz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cadiz 1458 · Sporting Gijon 1517

	Cadiz	Draw	Sporting Gijon
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon (rating 1458 vs 1517).
H2H favours Sporting Gijon: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cadiz	Sporting Gijon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.57
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.97 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +5’	2.55	3.10	2.70
07:01 +8’	2.55	3.10	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +57’	2.57	3.23	2.86
11:51 +79’	2.54▼	3.23	2.89▲
11:57 +188’	2.48▼	3.23	2.97▲
21:02 +146’	2.54▲	3.23	2.89▼
18:02 +149’	2.57▲	3.10▼	2.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cadiz 2–1–3 Sporting Gijon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	3-0 HT 1-0	Cadiz
09/01/26 Spain Segunda	Cadiz	3-2 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
25/04/25 Spain Segunda	Cadiz	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
02/11/24 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-0 HT 1-0	Cadiz
15/01/22 Spain Copa del Rey	Sporting Gijon	0-0 HT 0-0	Cadiz
21/02/20 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-0 HT 0-0	Cadiz

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eibar	8	7	0	1	18	7	21
2	CD Castellon	8	6	2	0	15	3	20
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13	5	18
4	Girona	8	4	2	2	14	8	14
5	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	8	3	14
6	Burgos	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
7	Sabadell	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
8	Sporting Gijon	8	4	1	3	8	8	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	13	13	11
10	Oviedo	8	3	2	3	8	8	11
11	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	12	13	11
12	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
13	Leganes	8	3	2	3	6	11	11
14	Valladolid	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
15	Cordoba	8	3	0	5	13	18	9
16	Real Sociedad B	8	2	2	4	11	13	8
17	Eldense	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
18	Celta Fortuna	8	2	2	4	10	14	8
19	Cadiz	8	1	4	3	11	10	7
20	FC Andorra	8	2	1	5	12	15	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	8	1	2	5	7	18	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	5	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cadiz	Sporting Gijon
Tenerife	1-1 D	1-0 W
Girona	1-2 L	0-2 L
Almeria	2-3 L	3-1 W
Eldense	2-2 D	0-1 L
Celta Fortuna	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cadiz

WLDDDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
26/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
19/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	2	7	L
12/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
06/09	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
30/08	Valladolid Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
22/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
15/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
24/05	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	9	W

Sporting Gijon

WWDWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	8	W
27/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
19/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Granada Spain Segunda	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
24/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	2-0	3-1	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cadiz win (37%). Probabilities: Cadiz 37%, draw 29%, Sporting Gijon 33%.

How many goals are expected in Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Cadiz 1.41 · Sporting Gijon 1.32), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.