Football · Spain Segunda · 12/10, 14:00

Prediction: Valladolid vs Albacete

Team pages: Valladolid · Albacete

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Valladolid1.32

Albacete0.87

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Valladolid Draw Albacete

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Valladolid 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWLDWD

Albacete 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Valladolid 1–1–4 Albacete (6 last)

Valladolid0-1Albacete
Albacete2-0Valladolid
Valladolid0-0Albacete
Albacete2-0Valladolid
Valladolid3-2Albacete
Albacete2-1Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valladolid 1465 · Albacete 1416

	Valladolid	Draw	Albacete
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valladolid (rating 1465 vs 1416).
H2H favours Albacete: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valladolid	Albacete
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.7	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.03
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.00 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.09 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:08 +3’	1.90	3.40	4.00
16:31 +4’	1.95▲	3.30▼	3.75▼
07:19 +2’	1.95	3.30	4.00▲
18:33 +1’	2.00▲	3.30	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +246’	2.12	3.13	3.84
02:58 +47’	1.99▼	3.24▲	4.14▲
14:38 +37’	2.00▲	3.25▲	4.09▼
18:32 +45’	1.94▼	3.31▲	4.26▲
10:55 +212’	1.99▲	3.26▼	4.11▼
14:44 +366’	2.01▲	3.26	4.03▼
14:03 +53’	2.03▲	3.30▲	4.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valladolid 1–1–4 Albacete

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	0-1 HT 0-0	Albacete
21/09/25 Spain Segunda	Albacete	2-0 HT 0-0	Valladolid
12/02/24 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	0-0 HT 0-0	Albacete
01/09/23 Spain Segunda	Albacete	2-0 HT 1-0	Valladolid
12/05/18 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	3-2 HT 1-1	Albacete
09/12/17 Spain Segunda	Albacete	2-1 HT 1-0	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eibar	8	7	0	1	18	7	21
2	CD Castellon	8	6	2	0	15	3	20
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13	5	18
4	Sabadell	9	4	4	1	10	7	16
5	Girona	8	4	2	2	14	8	14
6	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	8	3	14
7	Burgos	8	4	2	2	12	9	14
8	Sporting Gijon	8	4	1	3	8	8	13
9	Granada	8	3	2	3	13	13	11
10	Oviedo	8	3	2	3	8	8	11
11	Celta Fortuna	9	3	2	4	14	15	11
12	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	12	13	11
13	Eldense	9	3	2	4	10	11	11
14	Tenerife	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
15	Leganes	8	3	2	3	6	11	11
16	Valladolid	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
17	Cordoba	9	3	0	6	14	20	9
18	Real Sociedad B	9	2	2	5	12	17	8
19	Cadiz	8	1	4	3	11	10	7
20	FC Andorra	8	2	1	5	12	15	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	8	20	5
22	Albacete	8	0	1	7	5	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valladolid	Albacete
Las Palmas	2-2 D	1-2 L
Cordoba	3-1 W	1-2 L
AD Ceuta FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Oviedo	0-3 L	0-1 L
Eibar	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Valladolid (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valladolid

LLLLDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
20/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
05/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
15/08	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
24/05	Deportivo A Coruna Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	6	7	L

Albacete

WLLLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	1-3	6	3	L
25/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
18/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
12/09	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
29/08	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
22/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
16/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
30/05	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
24/05	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	2-0	3-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valladolid vs Albacete?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valladolid win (46%). Probabilities: Valladolid 46%, draw 30%, Albacete 24%.

How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs Albacete?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Valladolid 1.32 · Albacete 0.87), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Albacete?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.