Football · Spain Segunda · 03/10, 18:30

Prediction: Cadiz vs Leganes

Team pages: Cadiz · Leganes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Cadiz1.08

Leganes1.06

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Cadiz Draw Leganes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cadiz 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDLLLD

Leganes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Cadiz 1–1–0 Leganes (2 last)

Cadiz3-0Leganes
Leganes1-1Cadiz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cadiz 1445 · Leganes 1508

	Cadiz	Draw	Leganes
Our model	34%	32%	33%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leganes (rating 1445 vs 1508).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cadiz	Leganes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +8’	2.55	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cadiz 1–1–0 Leganes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Segunda	Cadiz	3-0 HT 1-0	Leganes
22/08/25 Spain Segunda	Leganes	1-1 HT 1-0	Cadiz

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eibar	7	6	0	1	15	6	18
2	CD Castellon	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Almeria	7	5	0	2	11	4	15
4	Burgos	7	4	2	1	11	7	14
5	Girona	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
6	Mallorca	7	4	1	2	8	3	13
7	Sabadell	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
8	Oviedo	7	3	2	2	7	4	11
9	Leganes	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
10	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
11	Las Palmas	7	3	1	3	10	11	10
12	Sporting Gijon	7	3	1	3	5	6	10
13	Granada	7	2	2	3	10	11	8
14	Real Sociedad B	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
15	Celta Fortuna	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
16	Valladolid	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
17	FC Andorra	7	2	0	5	12	15	6
18	Cordoba	7	2	0	5	10	16	6
19	Eldense	7	1	2	4	4	9	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	4	3	7	10	4
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	1	1	5	6	17	4
22	Albacete	7	0	1	6	4	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cadiz	Leganes
Tenerife	1-1 D	0-2 L
Girona	1-2 L	1-1 D
Las Palmas	0-1 L	0-0 D
Eldense	2-2 D	1-0 W
Racing Santander	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leganes (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cadiz

DWLDDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
19/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	2	7	L
12/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
06/09	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
30/08	Valladolid Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
22/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
15/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
24/05	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	9	W
15/05	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	1	9	D

Leganes

LDLWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Granada Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
13/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
22/08	Oviedo Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/08	Girona Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
31/05	Mirandes Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
24/05	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	6	9	L
18/05	Huesca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cadiz vs Leganes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cadiz win (35%). Probabilities: Cadiz 35%, draw 31%, Leganes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Cadiz vs Leganes?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Cadiz 1.08 · Leganes 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Leganes?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.