Football · Spain Segunda · 04/10, 18:30

Prediction: CD Castellon vs AD Ceuta FC

Team pages: CD Castellon · AD Ceuta FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

CD Castellon2.35

AD Ceuta FC0.88

1X2

69% 19% 12%

CD Castellon Draw AD Ceuta FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Castellon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWWWW

AD Ceuta FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

CD Castellon 1–3–0 AD Ceuta FC (4 last)

AD Ceuta FC1-1CD Castellon
CD Castellon3-3AD Ceuta FC
CD Castellon2-2AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC1-3CD Castellon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Castellon 1570 · AD Ceuta FC 1466

	CD Castellon	Draw	AD Ceuta FC
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Castellon (rating 1570 vs 1466).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Castellon	AD Ceuta FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.6	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	6.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	13.00 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +13’	1.18	6.50	13.00
16:19 +4’	1.17▼	6.50	15.00▲
17:21 +2’	1.33▲	4.75▼	8.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Castellon 1–3–0 AD Ceuta FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Spain Segunda	AD Ceuta FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Castellon
14/09/25 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	3-3 HT 2-1	AD Ceuta FC
11/02/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	CD Castellon	2-2 HT 0-0	AD Ceuta FC
15/10/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	AD Ceuta FC	1-3 HT 1-2	CD Castellon

Standings · Spain Segunda

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eibar	7	6	0	1	15	6	18
2	CD Castellon	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
3	Almeria	7	5	0	2	11	4	15
4	Burgos	7	4	2	1	11	7	14
5	Girona	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
6	Mallorca	7	4	1	2	8	3	13
7	Sabadell	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
8	Oviedo	7	3	2	2	7	4	11
9	Leganes	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
10	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
11	Las Palmas	7	3	1	3	10	11	10
12	Sporting Gijon	7	3	1	3	5	6	10
13	Granada	7	2	2	3	10	11	8
14	Real Sociedad B	7	2	2	3	9	10	8
15	Celta Fortuna	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
16	Valladolid	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
17	FC Andorra	7	2	0	5	12	15	6
18	Cordoba	7	2	0	5	10	16	6
19	Eldense	7	1	2	4	4	9	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	4	3	7	10	4
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	1	1	5	6	17	4
22	Albacete	7	0	1	6	4	12	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Castellon	AD Ceuta FC
Albacete	2-0 W	1-0 W
Celta Fortuna	2-1 W	0-2 L
Real Sociedad B	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Castellon (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Castellon

WWDLWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	3-0	5-0	0	2	W
12/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
06/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
31/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
09/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
06/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
31/05	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
24/05	Huesca Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

AD Ceuta FC

LWWLLLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	3-1	9	9	W
20/09	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-1	1-3	7	5	L
05/09	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
30/08	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
22/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
15/08	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	1-5	2	4	L
30/05	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
24/05	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	0	10	W
16/05	Malaga Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Castellon vs AD Ceuta FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Castellon win (69%). Probabilities: CD Castellon 69%, draw 19%, AD Ceuta FC 12%.

How many goals are expected in CD Castellon vs AD Ceuta FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (CD Castellon 2.35 · AD Ceuta FC 0.88), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Castellon vs AD Ceuta FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.