Football · Spain Segunda · 25/10, 16:15

Prediction: Albacete vs Eldense

Team pages: Albacete · Eldense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Albacete1.38

Eldense1.14

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Albacete Draw Eldense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Albacete 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLLLL

Eldense 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Albacete 2–1–3 Eldense (6 last)

Albacete1-0Eldense
Albacete0-1Eldense
Eldense2-0Albacete
Albacete0-3Eldense
Eldense0-1Albacete
Albacete1-1Eldense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albacete 1388 · Eldense 1497

	Albacete	Draw	Eldense
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eldense (rating 1388 vs 1497).
H2H favours Eldense: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albacete	Eldense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.43
2	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +17’	2.25	3.30	3.00
08:11 +7’	2.25	3.40▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +276’	2.19	3.60	3.16
06:43 +29’	2.32▲	3.53▼	2.99▼
15:14 +6’	2.29▼	3.53	3.03▲
15:43 +41’	2.21▼	3.53	3.18▲
16:52 +31’	2.18▼	3.56▲	3.21▲
16:29	2.28▲	3.50▼	3.06▼
22:48 +3’	2.30▲	3.43▼	3.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Albacete 2–1–3 Eldense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Albacete	1-0 HT 1-0	Eldense
23/02/25 Spain Segunda	Albacete	0-1 HT 0-0	Eldense
16/11/24 Spain Segunda	Eldense	2-0 HT 1-0	Albacete
27/07/24 Club Friendly List	Albacete	0-3 HT 0-1	Eldense
21/04/24 Spain Segunda	Eldense	0-1 HT 0-0	Albacete
19/12/23 Spain Segunda	Albacete	1-1 HT 0-0	Eldense

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	20	7	24
2	CD Castellon	10	7	2	1	18	4	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	20	11	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	11	9	19
5	Girona	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	12	5	18
7	Granada	10	5	2	3	16	13	17
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
8	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	12	14	13
13	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
14	Celta Fortuna	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	15	20	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	13	19	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	6	15	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
19	Real Sociedad B	10	2	2	6	14	21	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	11	13	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	9	22	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	6	22	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albacete	Eldense
Sporting Gijon	1-2 L	1-0 W
Valladolid	0-5 L	3-2 W
Eibar	1-3 L	1-2 L
Cordoba	1-2 L	2-1 W
Oviedo	0-1 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Eldense (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albacete

LLLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
12/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-4	0-5	5	6	L
03/10	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	1-3	6	3	L
25/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
18/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
12/09	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
29/08	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
22/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
16/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

Eldense

LDLDWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	2	8	W
10/10	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
02/10	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	4-1	6	6	W
27/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
13/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
05/09	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
29/08	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
22/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	2-2	7	5	D
17/08	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-3	0-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albacete vs Eldense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Albacete win (42%). Probabilities: Albacete 42%, draw 28%, Eldense 30%.

How many goals are expected in Albacete vs Eldense?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Albacete 1.38 · Eldense 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Albacete vs Eldense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.