Football · Spain Segunda · 02/11, 16:15

Prediction: Oviedo vs Las Palmas

Team pages: Oviedo · Las Palmas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Oviedo1.83

Las Palmas1.13

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Oviedo Draw Las Palmas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oviedo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLWWD

Las Palmas 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Oviedo 2–3–1 Las Palmas (6 last)

Las Palmas0-1Oviedo
Oviedo0-0Las Palmas
Las Palmas2-1Oviedo
Oviedo1-1Las Palmas
Oviedo0-0Las Palmas
Las Palmas1-2Oviedo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oviedo 1541 · Las Palmas 1476

	Oviedo	Draw	Las Palmas
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oviedo (rating 1541 vs 1476).
H2H favours Oviedo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oviedo	Las Palmas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.92
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +10’	1.75	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	1.74	3.86	4.56
09:02 +22’	1.70▼	3.92▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oviedo 2–3–1 Las Palmas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/23 Spain Segunda	Las Palmas	0-1 HT 0-0	Oviedo
06/12/22 Spain Segunda	Oviedo	0-0 HT 0-0	Las Palmas
21/05/22 Spain Segunda	Las Palmas	2-1 HT 1-1	Oviedo
06/11/21 Spain Segunda	Oviedo	1-1 HT 1-0	Las Palmas
10/04/21 Spain Segunda	Oviedo	0-0 HT 0-0	Las Palmas
31/10/20 Spain Segunda	Las Palmas	1-2 HT 0-2	Oviedo

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	11	8	2	1	22	4	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
5	Granada	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
6	Burgos	11	6	2	3	16	12	20
7	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	19
8	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	19
9	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
16	Celta Fortuna	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	10
19	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
20	Real Sociedad B	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oviedo	Las Palmas
AD Ceuta FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Eibar	3-1 W	2-3 L
Valladolid	3-0 W	2-2 D
Burgos	0-0 D	1-2 L
Leganes	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oviedo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oviedo

LWDWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-2	2-2	7	7	D
18/10	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/10	Eibar Spain Segunda	2-0	3-1	10	7	W
02/10	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-0	1-4	8	6	L
27/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	5	11	W
20/09	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
13/09	Valladolid Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
06/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
29/08	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	9	4	L

Las Palmas

WLDWLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
17/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
11/10	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
04/10	Valladolid Spain Segunda	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
27/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	1	8	L
20/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
12/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
04/09	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/08	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-5	1	5	L
22/08	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oviedo vs Las Palmas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oviedo win (52%). Probabilities: Oviedo 52%, draw 26%, Las Palmas 22%.

How many goals are expected in Oviedo vs Las Palmas?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Oviedo 1.83 · Las Palmas 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oviedo vs Las Palmas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.