Football · Spain Segunda · 01/11, 16:15

Prediction: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon

Team pages: AD Ceuta FC · Sporting Gijon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

AD Ceuta FC1.31

Sporting Gijon1.31

1X2

36% 29% 36%

AD Ceuta FC Draw Sporting Gijon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Ceuta FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Sporting Gijon 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Sporting Gijon (2 last)

Sporting Gijon1-2AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC0-1Sporting Gijon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Ceuta FC 1434 · Sporting Gijon 1504

	AD Ceuta FC	Draw	Sporting Gijon
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon (rating 1434 vs 1504).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Ceuta FC	Sporting Gijon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.8	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	2.15 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.67

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +9’	3.20	3.30	2.15
15:16 +11’	2.70▼	3.25▼	2.50▲
06:04 +16’	2.55▼	3.25	2.63▲
09:12 +10’	2.60▲	3.25	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +10’	2.59	3.57	2.54
14:13 +9’	2.61▲	3.62▲	2.56▲
15:05 +22’	2.57▼	3.62	2.60▲
19:07 +2’	2.61▲	3.62	2.56▼
22:58 +5’	2.48▼	3.67▲	2.67▲
09:02 +21’	2.56▲	3.62▼	2.61▼
17:06 +28’	2.51▼	3.62	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Ceuta FC 1–0–1 Sporting Gijon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-2 HT 1-2	AD Ceuta FC
23/08/25 Spain Segunda	AD Ceuta FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Sporting Gijon

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	11	8	2	1	22	4	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
5	Granada	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
6	Burgos	11	6	2	3	16	12	20
7	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	19
8	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	19
9	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
16	Celta Fortuna	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	10
19	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
20	Real Sociedad B	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Ceuta FC	Sporting Gijon
Cadiz	1-3 L	1-0 W
Oviedo	1-2 L	0-2 L
CD Castellon	1-1 D	0-4 L
Burgos	1-3 L	1-0 W
Celta Fortuna	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Ceuta FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-0	1-3	10	7	L
18/10	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	13	7	L
10/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
26/09	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	3-1	9	9	W
20/09	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/09	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-1	1-3	7	5	L
05/09	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
30/08	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
22/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Sporting Gijon

WWLLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
17/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
04/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	8	W
27/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
19/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Ceuta FC win (36%). Probabilities: AD Ceuta FC 36%, draw 29%, Sporting Gijon 36%.

How many goals are expected in AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon?

The model expects 2.61 goals (AD Ceuta FC 1.31 · Sporting Gijon 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.