Football · Spain Segunda · 01/11, 18:30

Prediction: Burgos vs CD Castellon

Team pages: Burgos · CD Castellon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Burgos0.97

CD Castellon1.36

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Burgos Draw CD Castellon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Burgos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWLLWW

CD Castellon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Burgos 0–1–3 CD Castellon (4 last)

CD Castellon3-1Burgos
Burgos0-0CD Castellon
CD Castellon2-1Burgos
Burgos0-2CD Castellon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgos 1518 · CD Castellon 1590

	Burgos	Draw	CD Castellon
Our model	25%	30%	45%
Market	27%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Castellon (rating 1518 vs 1590).
H2H favours CD Castellon: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgos	CD Castellon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	2.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 12:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.81 ★
X	3.25 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.05

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +21’	2.60	3.25	2.60
14:06 +17’	2.63▲	3.25	2.55▼
17:12 +17’	3.00▲	3.30▲	2.30▼
18:25 +5’	2.70▼	3.25▼	2.50▲
19:34 +8’	3.00▲	3.30▲	2.25▼
11:25 +2’	3.20▲	3.40▲	2.10▼
12:27 +3’	3.40▲	3.50▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:27 +5’	3.54	3.24	2.12
22:05 +21’	3.59▲	3.28▲	2.14▲
23:09 +13’	3.67▲	3.32▲	2.10▼
10:14 +7’	3.66▼	3.29▼	2.11▲
11:21 +6’	3.78▲	3.29	2.07▼
14:07 +42’	3.81▲	3.32▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgos 0–1–3 CD Castellon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	3-1 HT 1-1	Burgos
10/11/25 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Castellon
01/03/25 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	2-1 HT 1-1	Burgos
01/09/24 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-2 HT 0-0	CD Castellon

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	11	8	2	1	22	4	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
5	Granada	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
6	Burgos	11	6	2	3	16	12	20
7	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	19
8	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	19
9	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
16	Celta Fortuna	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	10
19	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
20	Real Sociedad B	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgos	CD Castellon
FC Andorra	3-2 W	0-1 L
Sabadell	1-0 W	0-0 D
Las Palmas	2-1 W	3-0 W
AD Ceuta FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sporting Gijon	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Burgos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burgos

LDDWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
18/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
12/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
03/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
27/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
06/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

CD Castellon

DWWWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
17/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-0	3-0	6	8	W
11/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
04/10	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/09	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
19/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	3-0	5-0	0	2	W
12/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
06/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
31/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgos vs CD Castellon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Castellon win (46%). Probabilities: Burgos 26%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 46%.

How many goals are expected in Burgos vs CD Castellon?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Burgos 0.97 · CD Castellon 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgos vs CD Castellon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.