Football · Spain Segunda · 02/11, 18:30

Prediction: Valladolid vs Leganes

Team pages: Valladolid · Leganes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Valladolid1.7

Leganes0.98

1X2

53% 26% 20%

Valladolid Draw Leganes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Valladolid 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDWLL

Leganes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Valladolid 1–2–3 Leganes (6 last)

Valladolid3-2Leganes
Leganes3-0Valladolid
Leganes3-0Valladolid
Leganes3-1Valladolid
Valladolid0-0Leganes
Leganes0-0Valladolid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valladolid 1481 · Leganes 1465

	Valladolid	Draw	Leganes
Our model	53%	26%	20%
Market	53%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leganes: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valladolid	Leganes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.79
X	3.25 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.91 ★
2	3.70 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +5’	1.95	3.25	3.70
07:14 +4’	1.90▼	3.30▲	3.90▲
11:23 +7’	1.73▼	3.50▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +26’	1.88	3.70	3.98
07:08 +10’	1.79▼	3.91▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valladolid 1–2–3 Leganes

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	3-2 HT 1-0	Leganes
11/01/26 Spain Segunda	Leganes	3-0 HT 2-0	Valladolid
24/05/25 Spain La Liga	Leganes	3-0 HT 3-0	Valladolid
10/10/24 Elite Club Friendlies	Leganes	3-1 HT 1-1	Valladolid
28/08/24 Spain La Liga	Valladolid	0-0 HT 0-0	Leganes
03/02/24 Spain Segunda	Leganes	0-0 HT 0-0	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	11	8	2	1	22	4	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
5	Granada	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
6	Burgos	11	6	2	3	16	12	20
7	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	19
8	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	19
9	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
12	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
16	Celta Fortuna	11	3	3	5	16	21	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	10
19	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
20	Real Sociedad B	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valladolid	Leganes
Granada	1-2 L	3-2 W
Eldense	2-3 L	1-0 W
Las Palmas	2-2 D	0-0 D
Cordoba	3-1 W	0-1 L
Oviedo	0-3 L	1-0 W
Cadiz	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leganes (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valladolid

LDWLDWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	13	8	L
12/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	4-0	5-0	7	6	W
04/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
20/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
05/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	7	L

Leganes

WWDLWLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
16/10	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
11/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-3	3	7	L
03/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
28/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
20/09	Granada Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
13/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
22/08	Oviedo Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valladolid vs Leganes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valladolid win (53%). Probabilities: Valladolid 53%, draw 26%, Leganes 20%.

How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs Leganes?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Valladolid 1.7 · Leganes 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Leganes?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.