Football · Spain Segunda · 26/10, 20:30

Prediction: FC Andorra vs Burgos

Team pages: FC Andorra · Burgos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

FC Andorra1.48

Burgos0.91

1X2

50% 27% 23%

FC Andorra Draw Burgos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Andorra 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWDWL

Burgos 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Andorra 2–1–3 Burgos (6 last)

Burgos1-0FC Andorra
FC Andorra2-1Burgos
FC Andorra1-0Burgos
Burgos0-0FC Andorra
Burgos2-1FC Andorra
FC Andorra0-1Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Andorra 1464 · Burgos 1530

	FC Andorra	Draw	Burgos
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgos (rating 1464 vs 1530).
H2H favours Burgos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Andorra	Burgos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.93
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +6’	1.85	3.40	3.80
08:17 +4’	1.85	3.60▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +297’	1.93	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Andorra 2–1–3 Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Spain Segunda	Burgos	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Andorra
31/08/25 Spain Segunda	FC Andorra	2-1 HT 1-0	Burgos
18/05/24 Spain Segunda	FC Andorra	1-0 HT 0-0	Burgos
25/11/23 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Andorra
15/01/23 Spain Segunda	Burgos	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Andorra
12/10/22 Spain Segunda	FC Andorra	0-1 HT 0-0	Burgos

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	20	7	24
2	CD Castellon	10	7	2	1	18	4	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	20	11	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	11	9	19
5	Girona	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	12	5	18
7	Granada	10	5	2	3	16	13	17
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
8	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	12	14	13
13	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
14	Celta Fortuna	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	15	20	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	13	19	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	6	15	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
19	Real Sociedad B	10	2	2	6	14	21	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	11	13	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	9	22	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	6	22	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Andorra	Burgos
Sabadell	0-0 D	1-0 W
Granada	3-2 W	0-1 L
Sporting Gijon	1-3 L	0-1 L
Real Sociedad B	1-3 L	2-2 D
AD Ceuta FC	5-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Burgos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Andorra

WLLLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Girona Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
11/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
04/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	0	7	D
26/09	Granada Spain Segunda	2-0	3-2	4	10	W
19/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
12/09	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-3	1-3	7	6	L
05/09	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
30/08	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-0	2-4	4	7	L
15/08	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	5-1	2	4	W

Burgos

WLDDWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
12/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
03/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
27/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
06/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
31/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
16/08	Cordoba Spain Segunda	2-2	3-2	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Andorra vs Burgos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Andorra win (50%). Probabilities: FC Andorra 50%, draw 27%, Burgos 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Andorra vs Burgos?

The model expects 2.4 goals (FC Andorra 1.48 · Burgos 0.91), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Andorra vs Burgos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.