Football · Spain Segunda · 25/10, 18:30

Prediction: CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon

Team pages: CD Castellon · Sporting Gijon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

CD Castellon1.87

Sporting Gijon0.85

1X2

61% 23% 16%

CD Castellon Draw Sporting Gijon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Castellon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDLW

Sporting Gijon 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLWWW

Head-to-head

CD Castellon 3–3 Sporting Gijon (6 last)

Sporting Gijon4-1CD Castellon
CD Castellon3-1Sporting Gijon
CD Castellon4-3Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon2-1CD Castellon
CD Castellon2-0Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon1-0CD Castellon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Castellon 1559 · Sporting Gijon 1534

	CD Castellon	Draw	Sporting Gijon
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Castellon	Sporting Gijon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.46 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +3’	1.45	4.20	6.25
02:20 +3’	1.50▲	4.00▼	5.75▼
08:17 +2’	1.50	4.00	7.00▲
15:33 +5’	1.53▲	4.00	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +12’	1.49	4.49	6.13
10:06 +14’	1.53▲	4.36▼	5.84▼
15:27 +11’	1.50▼	4.46▲	6.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 4 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Castellon 3–0–3 Sporting Gijon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	4-1 HT 1-1	CD Castellon
05/10/25 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	3-1 HT 2-1	Sporting Gijon
05/05/25 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	4-3 HT 2-1	Sporting Gijon
14/10/24 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Castellon
24/01/21 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	2-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
02/11/20 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Castellon

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	20	7	24
2	CD Castellon	10	7	2	1	18	4	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	20	11	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	11	9	19
5	Girona	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	12	5	18
7	Granada	10	5	2	3	16	13	17
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
8	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
12	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	12	14	13
13	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
14	Celta Fortuna	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
15	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	15	20	12
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	13	19	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	6	15	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
19	Real Sociedad B	10	2	2	6	14	21	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	11	13	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	9	22	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	6	22	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Castellon	Sporting Gijon
FC Andorra	0-1 L	3-1 W
Tenerife	5-0 W	1-0 W
Girona	2-1 W	0-2 L
Albacete	2-0 W	2-1 W
Celta Fortuna	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sabadell	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Castellon (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Castellon

WDWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-0	3-0	6	8	W
11/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
04/10	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/09	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
19/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	3-0	5-0	0	2	W
12/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
06/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
31/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	8	6	W

Sporting Gijon

DWWLLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
04/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	8	W
27/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
19/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Castellon win (61%). Probabilities: CD Castellon 61%, draw 23%, Sporting Gijon 16%.

How many goals are expected in CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon?

The model expects 2.72 goals (CD Castellon 1.87 · Sporting Gijon 0.85), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.