Football · Spain Segunda · 08/11, 16:15

Prediction: Girona vs Almeria

Team pages: Girona · Almeria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Girona1.51

Almeria1.06

1X2

47% 28% 26%

Girona Draw Almeria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Girona 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDWWL

Almeria 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Girona 3–1–2 Almeria (6 last)

Almeria0-0Girona
Girona5-2Almeria
Girona6-2Almeria
Almeria3-2Girona
Almeria0-1Girona
Girona1-2Almeria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Girona 1556 · Almeria 1578

	Girona	Draw	Almeria
Our model	46%	28%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Girona: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Girona	Almeria
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.1	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	5.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 20:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.06
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	3.20 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +6’	2.05	3.50	3.20
11:19 +1’	1.95▼	3.40▼	3.50▲
14:18 +32’	1.95	3.30▼	3.60▲
19:55 +10’	1.95	3.40▲	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:58 +27’	2.03	3.68	3.53
13:34	2.05▲	3.60▼	3.55▲
14:42 +8’	2.04▼	3.62▲	3.54▼
17:24 +14’	2.02▼	3.65▲	3.58▲
18:31 +17’	2.01▼	3.69▲	3.57▼
18:21 +17’	2.06▲	3.62▼	3.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Girona 3–1–2 Almeria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/01/24 Spain La Liga	Almeria	0-0 HT 0-0	Girona
22/10/23 Spain La Liga	Girona	5-2 HT 3-2	Almeria
17/02/23 Spain La Liga	Girona	6-2 HT 4-0	Almeria
20/10/22 Spain La Liga	Almeria	3-2 HT 3-0	Girona
27/03/22 Spain Segunda	Almeria	0-1 HT 0-1	Girona
04/10/21 Spain Segunda	Girona	1-2 HT 0-0	Almeria

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
4	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
5	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
6	Sporting Gijon	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
7	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
8	Burgos	12	6	3	3	17	13	21
9	Oviedo	12	5	3	4	17	15	18
10	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
11	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
12	Cordoba	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18	23	13
17	Leganes	12	3	3	6	10	20	12
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
19	Cadiz	12	2	4	6	15	16	10
20	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
21	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10	23	7
22	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Girona	Almeria
Real Sociedad B	0-1 L	4-2 W
Celta Fortuna	5-1 W	2-0 W
Mallorca	0-0 D	1-0 W
Cadiz	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Almeria (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Girona

WWLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
24/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	4-0	5-1	7	5	W
18/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/10	Tenerife Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
04/10	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
05/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
29/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	1-0	5-2	4	5	W

Almeria

LWWWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/10	Oviedo Spain Segunda	2-0	2-2	4	7	D
17/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	2-0	4-2	2	3	W
11/10	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	3-0	8	7	W
03/10	Burgos Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
27/09	Mallorca Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
20/09	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	0	10	W
06/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	3-1	3-2	3	4	W
29/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Girona vs Almeria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Girona win (47%). Probabilities: Girona 47%, draw 28%, Almeria 26%.

How many goals are expected in Girona vs Almeria?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Girona 1.51 · Almeria 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Girona vs Almeria?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.