Football · Spain La Liga · 19/08, 21:00
Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
Team pages: Atletico Madrid
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Atletico Madrid1.3
Malaga1.46
1X2
Atletico Madrid
Draw
Malaga
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Madrid
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Malaga
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid
5–1
Malaga
(6 last)
- Malaga0-1Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
- Malaga0-2Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid4-2Malaga
- Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
- Malaga1-0Atletico Madrid
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malaga (rating 1499 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Madrid | Malaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.8 | 3.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 5–0–1 Malaga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/18 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 16/09/17 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Malaga |
| 01/04/17 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 29/10/16 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Malaga |
| 23/04/16 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Malaga |
| 20/12/15 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Alaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-4 | 1-5 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 09/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Arsenal UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Arsenal UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/04 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Real Sociedad Spain Copa del Rey |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Malaga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Leicester Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Almeria Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Almeria Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/06 | Las Palmas Spain Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | Las Palmas Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Racing Santander Spain Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Eibar Spain Segunda |
1-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Malaga win (40%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 32%, draw 28%, Malaga 40%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Atletico Madrid 1.3 · Malaga 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.