Football · Spain La Liga · 19/08, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

Team pages: Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Atletico Madrid2.27

Malaga0.69

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Atletico Madrid Draw Malaga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWLLW

Malaga 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDWLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid 5–1 Malaga (6 last)

Malaga0-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
Malaga0-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid4-2Malaga
Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
Malaga1-0Atletico Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1521 · Malaga 1562

	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Malaga
Our model	73%	19%	9%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malaga (rating 1521 vs 1562).
H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.30
X	5.44 → 5.44	Pinn 5.44
2	9.65 → 9.65	Pinn 9.65

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +1’	1.30	5.44	9.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 5–0–1 Malaga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/18 Spain La Liga	Malaga	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
16/09/17 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
01/04/17 Spain La Liga	Malaga	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
29/10/16 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	4-2 HT 3-1	Malaga
23/04/16 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
20/12/15 Spain La Liga	Malaga	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Alaves	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Deportivo A Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	1	2	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Madrid

WLLWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Marseille Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
09/08	Man City Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
01/08	Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
29/07	Getafe Elite Club Friendlies	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
05/05	Arsenal UEFA Champions League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W

Malaga

WWDDWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Fulham Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
07/08	AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	0	4	L
06/08	Al-Arabi Doha World Club Friendlies	1-1	4-2	4	3	W
30/07	Al Ittihad Jeddah World Club Friendlies	0-2	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Leicester Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-3	4	1	D
20/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
14/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
10/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
07/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/05	Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid win (73%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 73%, draw 18%, Malaga 9%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Atletico Madrid 2.27 · Malaga 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.