Football · Spain La Liga · 26/08, 21:00
Prediction: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Team pages: Real Madrid · Real Sociedad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.47Total
Real Madrid2.42
Real Sociedad1.05
1X2
Real Madrid
Draw
Real Sociedad
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Real Madrid
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Real Sociedad
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Madrid
5–1
Real Sociedad
(6 last)
- Real Madrid4-1Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad1-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0Real Sociedad
- Real Madrid3-4Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad0-1Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad0-2Real Madrid
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1618 · Real Sociedad 1447
| Real Madrid | Draw | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1618 vs 1447).
- H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.6 | 1.7 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–0–1 Real Sociedad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 4-1 HT 3-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 13/09/25 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Real Madrid |
| 24/05/25 Spain La Liga | Real Madrid | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Real Sociedad |
| 01/04/25 Spain Copa del Rey | Real Madrid | 3-4 HT 1-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 26/02/25 Spain Copa del Rey | Real Sociedad | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Real Madrid |
| 14/09/24 Spain La Liga | Real Sociedad | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Real Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Deportivo A Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Schalke Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/08 | Deportivo La Coruna Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Ferencvarosi TC Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Fiorentina Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Oviedo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Real Sociedad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Chelsea Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/08 | Cologne Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Cologne Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | Toulouse Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Aston Villa Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Wolverhampton Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Racing Santander Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (67%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 67%, draw 19%, Real Sociedad 14%.
How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Real Madrid 2.42 · Real Sociedad 1.05), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.