Football · Spain Segunda · 24/10, 18:30

Prediction: Girona vs Celta Fortuna

Team pages: Girona · Celta Fortuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Girona2.08

Celta Fortuna0.77

1X2

67% 21% 12%

Girona Draw Celta Fortuna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Girona 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWDDW

Celta Fortuna 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLDLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Girona 1538 · Celta Fortuna 1502

	Girona	Draw	Celta Fortuna
Our model	67%	21%	12%
Market	67%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Girona	Celta Fortuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.42 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.65
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +2’	1.36	4.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +41’	1.41	4.57	7.05
21:43 +33’	1.42▲	4.65▲	7.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	10	8	0	2	20	7	24
2	CD Castellon	10	7	2	1	18	4	23
3	Eibar	10	7	1	2	20	11	22
4	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	11	9	19
5	Girona	10	5	3	2	17	9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	3	2	12	5	18
7	Granada	10	5	2	3	16	13	17
8	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
8	Oviedo	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
11	Eldense	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
12	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
13	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	11	13	12
14	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	15	20	12
15	Celta Fortuna	9	3	2	4	14	15	11
16	Las Palmas	10	3	2	5	13	19	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	6	15	11
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	10
19	Real Sociedad B	10	2	2	6	14	21	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	11	13	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	9	22	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	6	22	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Girona	Celta Fortuna
FC Andorra	2-0 W	4-2 W
Tenerife	1-1 D	1-1 D
Cadiz	2-1 W	0-0 D
CD Castellon	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sporting Gijon	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Girona (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Girona

DLWWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/10	Tenerife Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
04/10	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/09	Cadiz Spain Segunda	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
05/09	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
29/08	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	1-0	5-2	4	5	W
21/08	Cordoba Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	3	9	L
16/08	Leganes Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	9	5	D

Celta Fortuna

DWLWLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Tenerife Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/10	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
04/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	6	8	L
26/09	Sabadell Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
20/09	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
14/09	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-4	0-4	5	7	L
05/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
31/08	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
24/08	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-0	4-2	4	7	W
15/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Girona vs Celta Fortuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Girona win (67%). Probabilities: Girona 67%, draw 21%, Celta Fortuna 12%.

How many goals are expected in Girona vs Celta Fortuna?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Girona 2.08 · Celta Fortuna 0.77), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Girona vs Celta Fortuna?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.