Prediction: Nacional AM vs Capital CF
Expected goals: 2.19 (Nacional AM 1.18 · Capital CF 1.01). The model gives 38% home, 32% draw, 30% away. Over 2 goals (51%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Nacional AM is 4-3-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Capital CF 5-5-0 over its own.
| Nacional AM | Draw | Capital CF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 38% | 32% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional AM | Capital CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.5 | 2.3 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 6.7 / 0 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A4
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital CF | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | Goiatuba | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Ceilandia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Mixto | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Uniao Rondonopolis | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9 |
| 6 | Operario VG | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional AM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Copa Norte |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
Capital CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 30/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario MS Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario FC MS Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional AM vs Capital CF?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional AM win (38%). Probabilities: Nacional AM 38%, draw 32%, Capital CF 30%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional AM vs Capital CF?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Nacional AM 1.18 · Capital CF 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional AM vs Capital CF?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.