Prediction: Imperatriz vs Ferroviario
Expected goals: 2.12 (Imperatriz 0.95 · Ferroviario 1.17). The model gives 29% home, 32% draw, 40% away. Over 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Imperatriz with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Ferroviario has piled up 6-3-1 in the same span. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Imperatriz and 3 for Ferroviario, with 1 draw.
| Imperatriz | Draw | Ferroviario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 29% | 31% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario (rating 1513 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Ferroviario: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Imperatriz | Ferroviario | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.6 | 2.5 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Imperatriz 0–1–3 Ferroviario
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/20 Brazil Serie C | Ferroviario | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Imperatriz |
| 26/09/20 Brazil Serie C | Imperatriz | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ferroviario |
| 18/08/19 Brazil Serie C | Imperatriz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ferroviario |
| 15/06/19 Brazil Serie C | Ferroviario | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Imperatriz |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Piaui | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Fluminense PI | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | AE Altos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 5 | CEFAT Tirol | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Atlético Cearense | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Imperatriz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/05 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/04 | Jacuipense Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
Ferroviario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/06 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | ABC Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Imperatriz vs Ferroviario?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferroviario win (40%). Probabilities: Imperatriz 29%, draw 32%, Ferroviario 40%.
How many goals are expected in Imperatriz vs Ferroviario?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Imperatriz 0.95 · Ferroviario 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Imperatriz vs Ferroviario?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.