Football · Bulgaria Second League · 08/11, 15:30

Prediction: FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Marek Dupnitsa

Team pages: FC Hebar Pazardzhik · Marek Dupnitsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.78

Marek Dupnitsa1.19

1X2

50% 26% 24%

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Draw Marek Dupnitsa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWLWWL

Marek Dupnitsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLDWDL

Head-to-head

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2–1–2 Marek Dupnitsa (5 last)

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1-1Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa2-0FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik3-0Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa2-0FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik2-0Marek Dupnitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1544 · Marek Dupnitsa 1503

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Draw	Marek Dupnitsa
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik (rating 1544 vs 1503).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Marek Dupnitsa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 7	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	6.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2–1–2 Marek Dupnitsa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-1 HT 0-1	Marek Dupnitsa
16/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
14/05/22 Bulgaria B PFG	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3-0 HT 0-0	Marek Dupnitsa
19/11/21 Bulgaria B PFG	Marek Dupnitsa	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
15/07/17 Europe Friendlies	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2-0 HT 1-0	Marek Dupnitsa

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
2	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
3	Vihren Sandanski	14	7	5	2	26	13	26
4	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	14	6	5	3	13	10	23
5	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
6	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
7	Beroe	14	6	3	5	21	18	21
8	Spartak Pleven	14	6	2	6	16	25	20
9	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	14	6	2	6	29	24	20
10	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	13	5	4	4	18	14	19
13	Marek Dupnitsa	14	5	3	6	16	18	18
14	Nesebar	14	5	3	6	22	21	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	13	2	3	8	13	26	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	14	0	1	13	5	38	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Marek Dupnitsa
Yantra Gabrovo	0-3 L	0-3 L
Nesebar	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sportist Svoge	3-1 W	0-0 D
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	1-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

WDDLWWLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
23/10	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	11	3	W
10/10	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
27/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
21/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	3-0	5-0	4	4	W
14/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
07/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-3	8	10	L
01/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
29/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	5	W

Marek Dupnitsa

WDWLWLDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
23/10	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	8	7	D
10/10	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
26/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
20/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	8	9	L
13/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	9	2	W
06/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	2	8	L
02/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
29/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
23/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	2-1	4-2	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Marek Dupnitsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (50%). Probabilities: FC Hebar Pazardzhik 50%, draw 26%, Marek Dupnitsa 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model expects 2.97 goals (FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.78 · Marek Dupnitsa 1.19), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.