Football · Bulgaria Second League · 08/11, 15:30

Prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad II vs Nesebar

Team pages: Ludogorets Razgrad II · Nesebar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Ludogorets Razgrad II1.73

Nesebar1.04

1X2

53% 26% 22%

Ludogorets Razgrad II Draw Nesebar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ludogorets Razgrad II 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDLWWD

Nesebar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Ludogorets Razgrad II 2–1–3 Nesebar (6 last)

Ludogorets Razgrad II2-0Nesebar
Nesebar2-2Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II4-1Nesebar
Nesebar4-2Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II0-2Nesebar
Nesebar3-1Ludogorets Razgrad II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1507 · Nesebar 1479

	Ludogorets Razgrad II	Draw	Nesebar
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	53%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nesebar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ludogorets Razgrad II	Nesebar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +1’	1.65	3.60	4.33
00:21 +8’	1.70▲	3.50▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludogorets Razgrad II 2–1–3 Nesebar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/25 Bulgaria Second League	Ludogorets Razgrad II	2-0 HT 1-0	Nesebar
21/09/24 Bulgaria Second League	Nesebar	2-2 HT 0-1	Ludogorets Razgrad II
03/12/18 Bulgaria B PFG	Ludogorets Razgrad II	4-1 HT 1-1	Nesebar
29/07/18 Bulgaria B PFG	Nesebar	4-2 HT 4-0	Ludogorets Razgrad II
04/03/18 Bulgaria B PFG	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0-2 HT 0-0	Nesebar
13/08/17 Bulgaria Second League	Nesebar	3-1 HT 0-1	Ludogorets Razgrad II

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
2	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
3	Vihren Sandanski	14	7	5	2	26	13	26
4	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	14	6	5	3	13	10	23
5	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
6	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
7	Beroe	14	6	3	5	21	18	21
8	Spartak Pleven	14	6	2	6	16	25	20
9	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	14	6	2	6	29	24	20
10	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	13	5	4	4	18	14	19
13	Marek Dupnitsa	14	5	3	6	16	18	18
14	Nesebar	14	5	3	6	22	21	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	13	2	3	8	13	26	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	14	0	1	13	5	38	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ludogorets Razgrad II	Nesebar
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	7-0 W
Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-1 D	1-2 L
CSKA Sofia II	1-1 D	0-0 D
Vihren Sandanski	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ludogorets Razgrad II

LDDLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
27/10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	5-1	4	4	W
13/10	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-2	3-2	3	9	W
21/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
07/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
02/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
18/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	12	L

Nesebar

WDLWDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
23/10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-3	4	6	W
15/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
29/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	7-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs Nesebar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ludogorets Razgrad II win (53%). Probabilities: Ludogorets Razgrad II 53%, draw 26%, Nesebar 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs Nesebar?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Ludogorets Razgrad II 1.73 · Nesebar 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs Nesebar?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.