Football · Bulgaria Second League · 09/11, 16:30
Prediction: FK Fratria vs Sportist Svoge
Team pages: FK Fratria · Sportist Svoge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
FK Fratria1.85
Sportist Svoge0.67
1X2
FK Fratria
Draw
Sportist Svoge
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Fratria
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Sportist Svoge
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Fratria
4–0
Sportist Svoge
(4 last)
- Sportist Svoge0-3FK Fratria
- FK Fratria2-1Sportist Svoge
- FK Fratria2-0Sportist Svoge
- Sportist Svoge0-1FK Fratria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1522 · Sportist Svoge 1449
| FK Fratria | Draw | Sportist Svoge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1522 vs 1449).
- H2H favours FK Fratria: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Fratria | Sportist Svoge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.2 | 2.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 4–0–0 Sportist Svoge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Bulgaria Second League | Sportist Svoge | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FK Fratria |
| 23/08/25 Bulgaria Second League | FK Fratria | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sportist Svoge |
| 08/12/24 Bulgaria Second League | FK Fratria | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Sportist Svoge |
| 27/07/24 Bulgaria Second League | Sportist Svoge | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Fratria |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Chernomorets Burgas | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Vihren Sandanski | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Yantra Gabrovo | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Fratria | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Beroe | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Spartak Pleven | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 20 |
| 9 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 20 |
| 10 | Rilski Sportist | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 11 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 12 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 13 | Marek Dupnitsa | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 14 | Nesebar | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 15 | Montana | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 29 | 14 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 17 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Fratria | Sportist Svoge |
|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets Razgrad II | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Chernomorets Burgas | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| CSKA Sofia II | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Vihren Sandanski | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Beroe | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Fratria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 07/09 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/09 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/08 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Sportist Svoge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/10 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (65%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 65%, draw 22%, Sportist Svoge 12%.
How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
The model expects 2.52 goals (FK Fratria 1.85 · Sportist Svoge 0.67), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.