Football · Bulgaria Second League · 09/11, 13:30

Prediction: CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist

Team pages: CSKA Sofia II · Rilski Sportist

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

CSKA Sofia II1.82

Rilski Sportist0.77

1X2

61% 24% 15%

CSKA Sofia II Draw Rilski Sportist

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CSKA Sofia II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWWDDW

Rilski Sportist 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWDLD

Head-to-head

CSKA Sofia II 1–0 Rilski Sportist (1 last)

CSKA Sofia II4-2Rilski Sportist

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia II 1547 · Rilski Sportist 1529

	CSKA Sofia II	Draw	Rilski Sportist
Our model	61%	24%	14%
Market	62%	24%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSKA Sofia II	Rilski Sportist
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.80

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.45▼	Bet365 1.45
X	3.70 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	4.10 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +5’	1.67	3.70	4.10
10:14 +10’	1.45▼	3.80▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia II 1–0–0 Rilski Sportist

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/11/23 Bulgaria Third League	CSKA Sofia II	4-2 HT 1-0	Rilski Sportist

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
2	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
3	Vihren Sandanski	14	7	5	2	26	13	26
4	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	14	6	5	3	13	10	23
5	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
6	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
7	Beroe	14	6	3	5	21	18	21
8	Spartak Pleven	14	6	2	6	16	25	20
9	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	14	6	2	6	29	24	20
10	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	13	5	4	4	18	14	19
13	Marek Dupnitsa	14	5	3	6	16	18	18
14	Nesebar	14	5	3	6	22	21	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	13	2	3	8	13	26	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	14	0	1	13	5	38	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSKA Sofia II	Rilski Sportist
Marek Dupnitsa	3-1 W	3-1 W
Yantra Gabrovo	3-3 D	2-0 W
Nesebar	0-0 D	1-2 L
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	2-1 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	3-1 W	0-0 D
Montana	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSKA Sofia II

DLWLWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
23/10	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-3	4	6	D
10/10	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
21/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
13/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	4-0	3	7	W
06/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
29/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	11	8	D

Rilski Sportist

WDWLWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
23/10	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
10/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	2	9	W
13/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia II win (61%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia II 61%, draw 24%, Rilski Sportist 15%.

How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist?

The model expects 2.59 goals (CSKA Sofia II 1.82 · Rilski Sportist 0.77), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia II vs Rilski Sportist?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.