Football · Bulgaria Second League · 23/10, 17:00
Prediction: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
Team pages: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa · Pirin Blagoevgrad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa2.16
Pirin Blagoevgrad0.45
1X2
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Draw
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
1–5
Pirin Blagoevgrad
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1-2Pirin Blagoevgrad
- Pirin Blagoevgrad0-1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
- Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0-2Pirin Blagoevgrad
- Pirin Blagoevgrad2-0Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
- Pirin Blagoevgrad5-1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
- Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1-2Pirin Blagoevgrad
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1530 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1403
| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | Draw | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 18% | 6% |
| Market | 77% | 17% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa (rating 1530 vs 1403).
- H2H favours Pirin Blagoevgrad: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.1 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1–0–5 Pirin Blagoevgrad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Bulgaria Second League | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
| 16/08/25 Bulgaria Second League | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa |
| 04/04/25 Bulgaria Second League | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
| 23/09/24 Bulgaria Second League | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa |
| 22/03/21 Bulgaria B PFG | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa |
| 21/09/20 Bulgaria B PFG | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren Sandanski | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | FK Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra Gabrovo | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek Dupnitsa | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 17 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Rilski Sportist | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Marek Dupnitsa | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Yantra Gabrovo | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Nesebar | 1-1 D | 0-7 L |
| Sportist Svoge | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Spartak Pleven | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Fratria | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 15/09 | Nesebar Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 07/09 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 03/09 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Pirin Blagoevgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 07/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/09 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | Nesebar Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 0-7 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa win (77%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 77%, draw 18%, Pirin Blagoevgrad 6%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2.16 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.45), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.