Football · Bulgaria Second League · 23/10, 17:00

Prediction: Beroe vs Rilski Sportist

Team pages: Beroe · Rilski Sportist

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Beroe1.68

Rilski Sportist0.81

1X2

57% 26% 17%

Beroe Draw Rilski Sportist

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWLWL

Rilski Sportist 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLWWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1507 · Rilski Sportist 1543

	Beroe	Draw	Rilski Sportist
Our model	57%	26%	17%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	Rilski Sportist
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +154’	1.57	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	7	3	2	23	9	24
2	Vihren Sandanski	12	7	3	2	25	12	24
3	Chernomorets Burgas	12	7	3	2	21	8	24
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	5	4	3	14	10	19
6	Yantra Gabrovo	12	6	1	5	13	11	19
7	Nesebar	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
8	Beroe	12	5	3	4	18	15	18
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	12	4	5	3	9	10	17
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	11	5	2	4	19	19	17
12	Marek Dupnitsa	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
13	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	4	2	6	12	23	14
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	2	4	6	8	13	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	0	1	11	5	34	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beroe	Rilski Sportist
Marek Dupnitsa	2-3 L	3-1 W
Yantra Gabrovo	1-0 W	2-0 W
Nesebar	3-4 L	1-2 L
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	2-1 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2-2 D	0-0 D
Montana	0-0 D	2-1 W
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-2 D	1-1 D
Spartak Pleven	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rilski Sportist (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beroe

WLWDDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-3	2-3	10	5	L
27/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
25/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
14/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
10/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Rilski Sportist

DDWDWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	2	9	W
13/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
09/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	13	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs Rilski Sportist?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beroe win (57%). Probabilities: Beroe 57%, draw 26%, Rilski Sportist 17%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs Rilski Sportist?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Beroe 1.68 · Rilski Sportist 0.81), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs Rilski Sportist?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.