Football · Bulgaria Second League · 23/10, 17:00

Prediction: FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Nesebar

Team pages: FC Hebar Pazardzhik · Nesebar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FC Hebar Pazardzhik2.09

Nesebar1.04

1X2

61% 22% 17%

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Draw Nesebar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLWWLW

Nesebar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1563 · Nesebar 1517

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Draw	Nesebar
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik (rating 1563 vs 1517).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Nesebar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 6.8	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

25.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.20 → 5.20	Bet365 5.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:00 +154’	1.48	4.10	5.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	7	3	2	23	9	24
2	Vihren Sandanski	12	7	3	2	25	12	24
3	Chernomorets Burgas	12	7	3	2	21	8	24
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	5	4	3	14	10	19
6	Yantra Gabrovo	12	6	1	5	13	11	19
7	Nesebar	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
8	Beroe	12	5	3	4	18	15	18
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	12	4	5	3	9	10	17
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	11	5	2	4	19	19	17
12	Marek Dupnitsa	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
13	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	4	2	6	12	23	14
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	2	4	6	8	13	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	0	1	11	5	34	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Nesebar
Sportist Svoge	3-1 W	1-0 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	1-2 L	2-0 W
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-2 W	7-0 W
CSKA Sofia II	3-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nesebar (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

LWWDDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
27/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
21/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	3-0	5-0	4	4	W
14/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
07/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-3	8	10	L
01/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
29/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
18/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-4	2	5	L

Nesebar

WWWDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-3	4	6	W
15/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
29/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	7-0	6	4	W
16/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
10/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Nesebar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (61%). Probabilities: FC Hebar Pazardzhik 61%, draw 22%, Nesebar 17%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Nesebar?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2.09 · Nesebar 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Nesebar?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.