Football · Bulgaria Second League · 23/10, 15:00

Prediction: Chernomorets Burgas vs Sportist Svoge

Team pages: Chernomorets Burgas · Sportist Svoge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Chernomorets Burgas1.95

Sportist Svoge0.34

1X2

76% 18% 6%

Chernomorets Burgas Draw Sportist Svoge

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 58%

Most likely score

2-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Chernomorets Burgas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDWWWW

Sportist Svoge 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Chernomorets Burgas 2–2 Sportist Svoge (4 last)

Chernomorets Burgas1-0Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge0-1Chernomorets Burgas
Sportist Svoge1-0Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas1-2Sportist Svoge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chernomorets Burgas 1567 · Sportist Svoge 1441

	Chernomorets Burgas	Draw	Sportist Svoge
Our model	76%	19%	5%
Market	77%	17%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1567 vs 1441).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chernomorets Burgas	Sportist Svoge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	2.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X5.25

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.18▼	Bet365 1.18
X	4.75 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	11.00 → 15.00▲	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:57 +156’	1.22	4.75	11.00
18:22 +14’	1.18▼	5.25▲	15.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Burgas 2–0–2 Sportist Svoge

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge
16/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	0-1 HT 0-1	Chernomorets Burgas
18/05/24 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	1-0 HT 1-0	Chernomorets Burgas
03/11/23 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportist Svoge

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	7	3	2	23	9	24
2	Vihren Sandanski	12	7	3	2	25	12	24
3	Chernomorets Burgas	12	7	3	2	21	8	24
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	5	4	3	14	10	19
6	Yantra Gabrovo	12	6	1	5	13	11	19
7	Nesebar	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
8	Beroe	12	5	3	4	18	15	18
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	12	4	5	3	9	10	17
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	11	5	2	4	19	19	17
12	Marek Dupnitsa	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
13	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	4	2	6	12	23	14
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	2	4	6	8	13	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	0	1	11	5	34	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chernomorets Burgas	Sportist Svoge
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	1-0 W
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0-1 L	1-3 L
CSKA Sofia II	0-1 L	0-1 L
Vihren Sandanski	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chernomorets Burgas

DLLWWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-2	0	4	W
13/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
07/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
02/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D

Sportist Svoge

WLLDLDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-3	1	3	L
27/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
21/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	3-2	5	1	W
13/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
07/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
23/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
09/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Burgas vs Sportist Svoge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chernomorets Burgas win (76%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Burgas 76%, draw 18%, Sportist Svoge 6%.

How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Burgas vs Sportist Svoge?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Chernomorets Burgas 1.95 · Sportist Svoge 0.34), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chernomorets Burgas vs Sportist Svoge?

The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.