Football · Bulgaria Second League · 09/10, 19:00

Prediction: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs FK Fratria

Team pages: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo · FK Fratria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1.31

FK Fratria1.65

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Draw FK Fratria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDLWLL

FK Fratria 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 0–2–2 FK Fratria (4 last)

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria2-0Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria3-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1485 · FK Fratria 1572

	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	Draw	FK Fratria
Our model	29%	26%	44%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1485 vs 1572).
H2H favours FK Fratria: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	FK Fratria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +29’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 0–2–2 FK Fratria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Fratria
10/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	2-0 HT 0-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
27/04/25 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Fratria
24/10/24 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	3-1 HT 0-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	11	7	3	1	25	11	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23	9	23
3	FK Fratria	11	6	4	1	17	8	22
4	Chernomorets Burgas	11	6	3	2	18	8	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	14	10	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	9	10	16
9	Yantra Gabrovo	11	5	1	5	12	11	16
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	11	4	2	5	24	19	14
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
12	Marek Dupnitsa	11	4	2	5	11	12	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	11	22	13
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	10	3	3	4	9	10	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	13	23	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	7	10	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	4	33	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	FK Fratria
Chernomorets Burgas	2-4 L	2-2 D
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-4 L	1-1 D
CSKA Sofia II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Vihren Sandanski	1-4 L	2-2 D
Beroe	2-2 D	2-0 W
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-2 L	2-0 W
Rilski Sportist	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

WWWDLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
14/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
06/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
03/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
29/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
21/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
15/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
25/07	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	3-1	5-1	9	5	W

FK Fratria

WWWDWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
07/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
01/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs FK Fratria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Fratria win (44%). Probabilities: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 30%, draw 26%, FK Fratria 44%.

How many goals are expected in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs FK Fratria?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1.31 · FK Fratria 1.65), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs FK Fratria?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.