Football · Bulgaria Second League · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Marek Dupnitsa vs Beroe

Team pages: Marek Dupnitsa · Beroe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Marek Dupnitsa1.33

Beroe0.95

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Marek Dupnitsa Draw Beroe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Marek Dupnitsa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLWLD

Beroe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Marek Dupnitsa 0–2 Beroe (2 last)

Marek Dupnitsa0-3Beroe
Beroe4-0Marek Dupnitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marek Dupnitsa 1482 · Beroe 1517

	Marek Dupnitsa	Draw	Beroe
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Beroe: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marek Dupnitsa	Beroe
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +1’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marek Dupnitsa 0–0–2 Beroe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/12/14 Bulgaria First League	Marek Dupnitsa	0-3 HT 0-2	Beroe
13/09/14 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	4-0 HT 2-0	Marek Dupnitsa

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	11	7	3	1	25	11	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23	9	23
3	FK Fratria	11	6	4	1	17	8	22
4	Chernomorets Burgas	11	6	3	2	18	8	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	14	10	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	9	10	16
9	Yantra Gabrovo	11	5	1	5	12	11	16
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	11	4	2	5	24	19	14
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
12	Marek Dupnitsa	11	4	2	5	11	12	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	11	22	13
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	10	3	3	4	9	10	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	13	23	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	7	10	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	4	33	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marek Dupnitsa	Beroe
Yantra Gabrovo	0-3 L	1-0 W
Nesebar	1-0 W	3-4 L
Sportist Svoge	0-0 D	1-0 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	4-2 W	2-2 D
Montana	0-1 L	0-0 D
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Spartak Pleven	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Beroe (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marek Dupnitsa

LLLWDWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
20/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	8	9	L
13/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	9	2	W
06/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	2	8	L
02/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
29/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
23/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	2-1	4-2	5	9	W
16/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
01/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L

Beroe

LWLWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
25/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
14/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
10/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
01/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marek Dupnitsa vs Beroe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marek Dupnitsa win (44%). Probabilities: Marek Dupnitsa 44%, draw 30%, Beroe 26%.

How many goals are expected in Marek Dupnitsa vs Beroe?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Marek Dupnitsa 1.33 · Beroe 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marek Dupnitsa vs Beroe?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.