Football · Bulgaria Second League · 10/10, 15:00
Prediction: Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II
Team pages: Nesebar · CSKA Sofia II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Nesebar1.37
CSKA Sofia II1.53
1X2
Nesebar
Draw
CSKA Sofia II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nesebar
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia II
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nesebar
0–2
CSKA Sofia II
(2 last)
- CSKA Sofia II2-0Nesebar
- Nesebar0-3CSKA Sofia II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nesebar 1514 · CSKA Sofia II 1564
| Nesebar | Draw | CSKA Sofia II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia II (rating 1514 vs 1564).
- H2H favours CSKA Sofia II: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nesebar | CSKA Sofia II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nesebar 0–0–2 CSKA Sofia II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/25 Bulgaria Second League | CSKA Sofia II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Nesebar |
| 01/09/24 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 0-3 HT 0-2 | CSKA Sofia II |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren Sandanski | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FK Fratria | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets Burgas | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 17 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 9 | Yantra Gabrovo | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 10 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 14 |
| 11 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 14 |
| 12 | Marek Dupnitsa | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| 17 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nesebar | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Pirin Blagoevgrad | 7-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Sportist Svoge | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Montana | 1-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nesebar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/09 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/09 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/08 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/08 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
CSKA Sofia II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/09 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/09 | Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/08 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia II win (40%). Probabilities: Nesebar 33%, draw 27%, CSKA Sofia II 40%.
How many goals are expected in Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Nesebar 1.37 · CSKA Sofia II 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.