Football · Bulgaria Second League · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Team pages: Rilski Sportist · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Rilski Sportist1.41

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0.7

1X2

54% 28% 18%

Rilski Sportist Draw Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Rilski Sportist 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWLWWW

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWDDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rilski Sportist 1541 · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1514

	Rilski Sportist	Draw	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Our model	53%	30%	17%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rilski Sportist	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +8’	1.65	3.40	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	11	7	3	1	25	11	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23	9	23
3	FK Fratria	11	6	4	1	17	8	22
4	Chernomorets Burgas	11	6	3	2	18	8	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	16	12	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	14	10	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	20	17	17
8	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	9	10	16
9	Yantra Gabrovo	11	5	1	5	12	11	16
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	11	4	2	5	24	19	14
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
12	Marek Dupnitsa	11	4	2	5	11	12	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	11	22	13
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	10	3	3	4	9	10	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	13	23	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	7	10	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	11	2	3	6	12	18	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	4	33	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rilski Sportist	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Marek Dupnitsa	3-1 W	0-0 D
Yantra Gabrovo	2-0 W	1-0 W
Nesebar	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sportist Svoge	2-1 W	0-0 D
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0-0 D	2-0 W
Montana	2-1 W	0-3 L
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Spartak Pleven	2-2 D	1-0 W
FK Fratria	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rilski Sportist (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rilski Sportist

LDDWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	2	9	W
13/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
09/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	13	5	D
01/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	11	0	L

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

LLWWLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
15/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
30/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
21/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
03/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rilski Sportist win (54%). Probabilities: Rilski Sportist 54%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 18%.

How many goals are expected in Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Rilski Sportist 1.41 · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rilski Sportist vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.