Football · Bulgaria Second League · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
Team pages: Nesebar · Pirin Blagoevgrad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.26Total
Nesebar1.91
Pirin Blagoevgrad1.35
1X2
Nesebar
Draw
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nesebar
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nesebar
2–3
Pirin Blagoevgrad
(5 last)
- Pirin Blagoevgrad5-1Nesebar
- Nesebar1-5Pirin Blagoevgrad
- Nesebar2-3Pirin Blagoevgrad
- Pirin Blagoevgrad1-3Nesebar
- Nesebar1-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nesebar 1562 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1429
| Nesebar | Draw | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nesebar (rating 1562 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Pirin Blagoevgrad: 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nesebar | Pirin Blagoevgrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/33/11% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nesebar 2–0–3 Pirin Blagoevgrad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 Bulgaria Second League | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Nesebar |
| 15/09/24 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
| 20/04/19 Bulgaria B PFG | Nesebar | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
| 06/10/18 Bulgaria Second League | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Nesebar |
| 23/09/15 Bulgaria Cup | Nesebar | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | FK Fratria | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Montana | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Spartak Pleven | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Beroe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Yantra Gabrovo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Nesebar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Chernomorets Burgas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Vihren Sandanski | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Sportist Svoge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 13 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Marek Dupnitsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rilski Sportist | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 17 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nesebar | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Sportist Svoge | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 1-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Nesebar (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nesebar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/08 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Spartak Varna Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Asenovets Bulgaria Third League |
4-1 | 8-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Zagorets Bulgaria Third League |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Spartak Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Maritsa Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Yambol 1915 Bulgaria Third League |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Pirin Blagoevgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/04 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nesebar win (49%). Probabilities: Nesebar 49%, draw 26%, Pirin Blagoevgrad 25%.
How many goals are expected in Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
The model expects 3.26 goals (Nesebar 1.91 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.35), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nesebar vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.